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Daily Market Insight: 1 September 2022

1 Sep 2022
  • USDTHB: moving in the range 36.61-36.71 this morning, supporting level of USDTHB is around 36.00 resistance level is around 36.50
  • SET Index: 1,638.9 (+0.79%), 31 Aug 2022
  • S&P 500 Index: 3,955.0 (-0.78%), 31 Aug 2022
  • Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.60 (+3.61 bps), 31 Aug 2022
  • US 10-year treasury yield: 3.15 (+4.00 bps), 31 Aug 2022

 

·         Euro zone inflation hits another record of 9.1% in August

·         Oil falls on greater supply, lower China demand concerns

·         South Korea GDP expands 0.7% on the second quarter

·         2-year US treasury tops 3.5% for first time since 2007


Euro zone inflation hits another record of 9.1% in August
Euro zone inflation hit a new record high in August of 9.1%yoy, according to flash figures from Europe’s statistics office Eurostat, and that was up from 8.9%yoy in July. It is the ninth consecutive record for consumer price rises in the region, with the climb starting back in November 2021. Precisely, food, alcohol and tobacco were up 10.6%yoy compared to 9.8%yoy in July, with the knock-on effects of recent heatwaves across the continent contributing to increases. Energy had the highest annual inflation rate at 38.3%yoy, down slightly from 39.6%yoy in July. Non-energy industrial goods, such as clothing, household appliances and cars were up 5%yoy, while services were up by 3.8%yoy. In addition, core inflation rate also hit to a record high of 4.3%yoy in August of 2022.

Oil falls on greater supply, lower China demand concerns Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Thursday, led lower by increased supply and worries that the global economy could slow further with renewed restrictions to curb COVID-19 in China. Recent market volatility has followed concerns about inadequate supply in the months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and as OPEC struggled to increase output. However, production in both OPEC and the U.S. has risen to its highest level since the early days of the pandemic. OPEC's output hit 29.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in the most recent month, according to a Reuters survey, while U.S. output rose to 11.82 million bpd in June. Both are at their highest levels since April 2020. Meanwhile, China's factory activity extended declines in August due to new COVID infections, suggesting the economy will struggle to sustain momentum.

South Korea GDP expands 0.7% on the second quarter According to the Bank of Korea data, South Korea's economy grew in the second quarter by 0.7%qoqsa from the previous quarter or expanded by 2.9%yoy (compared to previous quarter at 3.0%yoy). By expenditure, private consumption advanced 2.9%, while construction and facilities investment grew 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively. Exports shrank 3.1% as a drop of chemical products and basic metals. Imports also contracted by 1.0%, owing to decreased imports of crude oil and natural gas. On the production, services grew by 1.8%, with increases in accommodation & food services, transportation and storage, and cultural & other services. On one hand, manufacturing decreased by 0.7%, mainly in chemicals & chemical products and basic metals. Construction fell by 0.1%, as specialized construction decreased, despite an increase in building construction.

2-year US treasury tops 3.5% for first time since 2007, reflected price-in more Fed policy tightening The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.60, +3.60 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.43, +5.0 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.40-2.47. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.15, +4.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.48 Moving in a range of 36.61-36.71 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.00-36.50 today. Also, the 2-year US treasury rate rose 1 bps to 3.5052%, that was higher in November 2007. Federal Reserve officials have signaled the US central bank is likely to keep raising interest rates and leave them elevated for a while to stamp out inflation, and they have pushed back against any idea that the Fed would soon reverse course.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC