- USDTHB : moving in the range 34.90-34.98 this morning, supporting level of USDTHB is around 34.92 resistance level is around 35.00
- SET Index: 1,600.1 (-2.01%), 13 Jun 2022
- S&P 500 Index: 3,749.6 (-3.95%), 13 Jun 2022
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) : 3.09% (+16.1bps), 13 Jun 2022
- US 10-year treasury yield: 3.43 (+28.00bps), 13 Jun 2022
- Fed likely to boost interest rates by 0.75 basis point
- US Inflation Expectations Back to Record High
- New Zealand May Food Inflation Rises to 6.8%
- Brent steadies around $122.5 per barrel as tight global oil market
- Fed bid to fight decade high inflation triggering inverted yield curve
Fed likely to boost interest rates by 0.75 basis point Fed policymakers are entertaining the idea of a 75 basis point increase to the benchmark funds rate that banks charge each other for overnight financing. Changes in the economic outlook, including the likelihood that inflation hasn’t peaked and is running well ahead of the Fed’s 2% goal, could influence a bigger rate move. The Wall Street firm’s economists now foresee consecutive 75 basis point rate hikes in June and July, followed by a 50 basis point move in September and 25 basis point moves in November and December, taking the fed funds rate to a range of 3.25%-3.5% by the end of the year.
US Inflation Expectations Back to Record High US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 6.6% in May of 2022 from 6.3% in April, matching a record hit in March. After declining sharply last month, the year-ahead expected change in the price of gas rose slightly to 5.5%. On the other hand, the expected change in the price of food, medical care and rent all fell by 0.1 percentage point to 9.3%, 9.4%, and 10.2%, respectively. Similarly, the median expected change in the cost of a college education declined by 0.5 percentage points to 8.6%. Meanwhile, the median three-year-ahead inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.9%.
New Zealand May Food Inflation Rises to 6.8% Food price inflation in New Zealand rose to 6.8% year-on-year in May of 2022, up from 6.4% in the previous month. The largest positive contributions came from prices of grocery food including yoghurt, milk, and cheese (7.4% vs 6.4% in April), and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food (6% vs 5.3%). Prices also continued to climb for fruit and vegetables (10% vs 9.4%). On a monthly basis, food prices were up 0.7%, following a 0.1% uptick in the previous month.
Brent steadies around $122.5 per barrel as tight global oil
market
Brent crude futures steadied around $122.5 per barrel on Tuesday, as a still
tight global oil market countered fears over a possible recession and potential
new Covid curbs in China that threatens to hit demand. A drop in Libyan oil
exports amid a political unrest that has hit output and ports exacerbated
supply tightness, at a time other OPEC+ producers are struggling to meet their
output targets and Russia is facing bans on its oil over the war in Ukraine. On
the demand side, a Covid outbreak at a bar in Beijing stoked fears of fresh
lockdowns just as restrictions were being eased.
Fed bid to fight decade high
inflation triggering inverted yield curve
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day
was 3.09, +16.1 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.05,
+19.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 3.00-3.13. Meantime, the latest closed US
10-year bond yields was 3.43, +28.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day
closed around 34.81 Moving in a range from 34.90-34.98 this morning. USDTHB could
be closed between 34.92-35.00 today. The Fed’s bid to contain the hottest
inflation in decades will end in a recession as bond market is telegraphing
after US inflation shock. 2Y yields exceeded 10Y rates for the first time since
April on Monday, while 5Y yields soared as much as 17 basis points above 30Y
rates in the widest inversion in over two decades.
