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Daily Market Insight: 29 Mar 2022

29 Mar 2022
  • USDTHB : moving in the range 33.70 – 33.80 this morning, supporting level of USDTHB is around  33.50, 33.70 resistance level is around 33.90
  • SET Index: 1,684.3 (+0.45%), 28 Mar 2022
  • S&P 500 Index: 4,575.5 (+0.71%), 28 Mar 2022
  • Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) : 2.54% (+5.25 bps), 28 Mar 2022
  • US 10-year treasury yield: 2.46 (-2.00bps), 28 Mar 2022

 

 

  • U.S. goods trade deficit narrows in February; still near record highs
  • S&P Global forecasts 8.5% contraction in Russia's economy in 2022
  • Australian retail sales jump in February
  • Dollar hits 6-year high vs yen as BOJ moves against rising bond yields

 

 

U.S. goods trade deficit narrows in February; still near record highs

The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed in February, but the fall reversed only a fraction of the surge to a record high in January, suggesting that trade would again weigh on economic growth in the first quarter. Though the advance indicators report from the Commerce Department on Monday showed businesses continuing to restock last month, the pace slowed from late 2021, implying that there would probably be no contribution to gross domestic product growth from inventory investment either. The trade deficit last month fell 0.9% to $106.6 billion, the Commerce Department said on Monday. The goods trade deficit hit an all-time high of $107.6 billion in January. Exports increased 1.2% to $157.2 billion. Economists believe exports, which were not adjusted for inflation, were flattered by higher prices rather than increased volumes.

 

S&P Global forecasts 8.5% contraction in Russia's economy in 2022

S&P Global cut its 2022 GDP growth estimate for Russia by more than 11 percentage points to an 8.5% contraction, while its forecasts for Poland and Turkey were shaved by more than 1 percentage point, due to the effects of the war in Ukraine. On its economic outlook for emerging markets for the next quarter, S&P Global said its base assumption was that "he conflict will have the most acute impact on commodity markets, supply chains, and investor and consumer confidence in the first and second quarters of 2022. The effects would lessening but linger in the rest of the year and beyond.

 

Australian retail sales jump in February

 Australian retail sales beat forecasts again in February as shoppers defied storms and coronavirus waves to return to cafes and department stores for the second-best month ever of spending. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics out on Tuesday showed retail sales climbed 1.8% in February from the previous month to A$33.1 billion ($24.76 billion), handily beating forecasts of a 1.0% gain. That left sales up a huge 9.1% on February last year and followed a surprisingly upbeat 1.6% gain in January, suggesting household spending overall was set for a strong first quarter.

 

Dollar hits 6-year high vs yen as BOJ moves against rising bond yields

The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.54, +5.25 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.49, +5.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.45-2.54. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 2.46%, -2.00bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.71 Moving in a range from 33.70-33.80 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.60-33.80 today. The dollar hit a six-year high versus the yen after the Bank of Japan moved to contain rising bond yields, while U.S. Treasury yields soared to new multi-year highs, highlighting a divergence between the BOJ and other major central banks. Treasury 10-year yields vaulted above 2.5% to three-year highs.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Investing, CEIC