- USDTHB : moving in the range 32.10 – 32.18 this morning, THB largely appreciated against USD as large foreign inflow into Thai bond and stock market. Though, Fed hike may likely drive USDTHB up in medium term, supporting level of USDTHB is around 32.00, resistance level is around 32.20, 32.60
- SET Index: 1,713.2 (+0.09%), 18 Feb 2022
- S&P 500 Index: 4,348.9 (-0.72%), 18 Feb 2022
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) : 2.18% (-2.00 bps), 18 Feb 2022
- US 10-year treasury yield: 1.92 (-5.00bps), 18 Feb 2022
- What global banks forecast for Fed rate hikes in 2022
- After defending its yield target, what's next for the BOJ
- China's new home prices perk up as demand in big cities rises
- Currency markets nervously eye Ukraine headlines, take heart from possible summit
What global banks forecast for Fed rate hikes in 2022
As the Fed gets set to raise pandemic-era rates, here are the estimates from major global investment banks on how far and fast rates will rise. JP Morgan raises its Fed call to seven 25-bp rate hikes from five previously, for a total of 175 bps of tightening this year. Morgan Stanley now expects the Fed to deliver six 25-bp hikes this year. UBS now expects 150 bps of tightening this year via six consecutive quarter-point moves from March through November. BNP Paribas expects six hikes of 25 bps this year starting in March, resulting in a cumulative 150 bps of tightening. Citi now expects 150 bps of tightening this year, starting with a 50-bp move in March, followed by four, quarter-point increases in May, June, September and December. Goldman Sachs said it is raising its forecast to include seven consecutive 25-bp rate hikes at each of the remaining FOMC meetings in 2022. Thuus, all global banks expect 5 – 7 Fed hikes this year up from previous 4 – 5 hikes.
After defending its yield target, what's next for the BOJ
The 10-year Japanese government bond yield moved back below an implicit 0.25% cap the Bank of Japan sets around its 0% target, after the central bank stepped in on Monday with a rare offer to buy an unlimited amount of the tenor at the level. But 30-year and 40-year yields have crept up to multi-year highs, drawing investors' attention to the BOJ's response and how long it could keep defending the key 10-year target. Under yield curve control, the BOJ seeks to control the shape of the curve by pinning short-term rates and the 10-year JGB yield. It does not set any target level for other zones. For now, the BOJ sees the recent steepening of the yield curve as a desirable move as it widens the margin financial institutions earn from loans and investment. If upward pressure on the 10-year yield continues to build up, the BOJ can conduct fixed-rate bond buying operations.
China's new home prices perk up as demand in big cities rises
China's new home prices rose for the first time since September on a monthly basis, as efforts to soften the blow from tough regulatory curbs on the sector supported buyer sentiment, particularly in big cities. Average new home prices in China's 70 major cities rose 0.1% from a month earlier in January, compared with a 0.2% drop in December. The number of cities reporting price gains rose to 28 from 15 in December, driven mainly by the larger tier-one and tier-two cities. Though easing measures are helping, new home prices rose at the slowest pace of 2.3% since December 2015 from a year earlier, narrowing from the 2.6% growth recorded in December.
Currency markets nervously eye Ukraine headlines, take heart from possible summit
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.18, -2.00 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.15, -1.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.12-2.17. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 1.92%, -5.00bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.18 Moving in a range from 32.10-32.18 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.07-32.17 today. Meantime, Currency markets started the week nervously eying tensions in eastern Europe, with the safe-haven yen not far from a two-week high while the euro was on edge given the energy security and economic implications for Europe of a war in Ukraine.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Investing, CEIC
