- USDTHB : moving in the range 32.83 – 33.00 this morning, USDTHB at current level might be possible long entry. Hawkish Fed may likely continue to drive USDTHB in medium term, supporting level of USDTHB is around 32.85, resistance level is around 33.00, 33.20
- SET Index: 1,674.2 (+0.31%), 4 Feb 2022
- S&P 500 Index: 4,500.5 (+0.51%), 4 Feb 2022
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) : 2.17% (+6.00 bps), 4 Feb 2022
- US 10-year treasury yield: 1.93 (+11.00bps), 4 Feb 2022
- ECB's Knot sees first interest rate hike in fourth quarter of 2022
- Thailand central bank awaits tourism revival, to hold rates for another year: Reuters poll
- China could take further measures to rein in yuan- former regulator
- Euro near three-week top, but looming Fed tightening could help dollar
ECB's Knot sees first interest rate hike in fourth quarter of 2022
Klaas Knot, the Dutch central bank president and ECB Governor, said he expects the ECB to raise interest rates in the fourth quarter of this year as one of the more hawkish of ECB members said he supported winding down the euro zone central bank's asset purchasing programme as quickly as possible. Knot's remarks come after ECB President Christine Lagarde on Thursday opened the door to an interest rate increase in 2022 but said it was "unlikely". The bank must first end its asset purchasing programmes, currently set to be wound down in steps to 20 billion euros ($22.89 billion) per month by the fourth quarter. However, since Thursday bond markets have begun pricing in around 40 basis points of rate hikes by December.
Thailand central bank awaits tourism revival, to hold rates for another year: Reuters poll
Thailand's central bank will wait for at least a year before raising interest rates from record lows to support the tourism-dependent economy hit hard by coronavirus-related travel restrictions, a Reuters poll found. Economic growth in the Southeast Asian nation is yet to return to pre-pandemic levels and the recovery continues to be fragile due to an outbreak of the Omicron coronavirus variant that crippled the crucial tourism industry. Although inflation breached the Bank of Thailand's (BOT) target range of 1-3% in January, it was expected to fall back within that range in the coming months, giving the central bank the space to maintain an accommodative stance as long as necessary to revive growth. The central bank was expected to raise its key interest rate to 0.75% in Q2 of 2023, followed by another 25 basis points in Q4 of next year.
China could take further measures to rein in yuan- former regulator
The Chinese government could take further measures if needed to keep the yuan stable, potentially putting downward pressure on the currency, a former foreign exchange regulator said. Policymakers could increase yuan's flexibility, expand capital outflows, or control capital inflows to rein in the yuan, which could deviate from economic fundamentals in the short term, wrote Guan Tao, global chief economist at BOC International. The yuan also faces downward pressure from several market factors, including further strengthening of the dollar index, the shrinking spread between U.S. and Chinese yields, and the narrowing difference in the growth between the two economies, Guan wrote. China's yuan hit a near four-year-high against the dollar on Jan.
Euro near three-week top, but looming Fed tightening could help dollar
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.17, +6.00 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.15, +5.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.12-2.17. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 1.93%, +11.00bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.98 Moving in a range from 32.83-33.00 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.90-33.00 today. Meantime, The euro was near Friday's three-week high on Monday morning, after the European Central Bank's hawkish turn last week, but analysts said further short-term gains looked less likely with looming Fed tightening supporting the dollar.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Investing, CEIC
