- USDTHB : moving in the range 32.93 – 33.02 this morning, USDTHB at current level might be possible long entry. Hawkish Fed may likely continue to drive USDTHB in medium term, supporting level of USDTHB is around 32.85
- SET Index: 1,639.1 (-0.09%), 25 Jan 2022
- S&P 500 Index: 4,356.5 (-1.12%), 25 Jan 2022
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) : 2.14% -2.00 bps, 25 Jan 2022
- US 10-year treasury yield: 1.78 (+3.00bps), 25 Jan 2022
- Trump battled the Powell Fed's rate hikes. Biden's betting on them
- IMF cuts growth forecasts for U.S., China and world as Omicron spreads
- BOJ debated chance of inflation pick-up towards 2% as price hikes broaden
- Euro falls to one-month low as Ukraine tensions simmer
Trump battled the Powell Fed's rate hikes. Biden's betting on them
The silence marks a sharp reversal for the Fed and its chair, Jerome Powell. His four interest rate hikes in 2018 drew blistering criticism from President Donald Trump, who had just installed Powell atop the Fed and felt they undercut Trump's own efforts to bolster economic growth. President Joe Biden by contrast has endorsed what the Fed has signaled will be at least three interest rate hikes this year and a rapid shrinking of its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet to further raise borrowing costs. So why the difference? Contrasting presidential styles aside, it comes down to one thing: inflation. In Trump's four-year term consumer prices mostly rose around a 2% annual pace and never faster than 3%. In Biden's first year alone they shot up 7% as demand for everything from cars to hamburgers far outpaced the economy's ability to fulfill it.
IMF cuts growth forecasts for U.S., China and world as Omicron spreads
The International Monetary Fund lowered its economic forecasts for the United States, China and the global economy on Tuesday, and said uncertainty about the pandemic, inflation, supply disruptions and U.S. monetary tightening posed further risks. "We project global growth this year at 4.4%, 0.5 percentage point lower than previously forecast, mainly because of downgrades for the United States and China," according to IMF. Escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine could boost energy prices, keeping headline inflation at elevated levels for longer. Global growth is expected to slow to 3.8% in 2023. The IMF cut its forecast for U.S. growth by 1.2 percentage points. The U.S. economy is now forecast to grow by 4% in 2022 after expanding 5.6% in 2021, with growth seen easing further to 2.6% in 2023, the IMF said.
BOJ debated chance of inflation pick-up towards 2% as price hikes broaden
Some Bank of Japan policymakers saw consumer inflation briefly accelerating towards their 2% target as price pressures build up on changing corporate price-setting behavior, according to BoJ. Many board members, however, stressed the need to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy to support a fragile economy facing fresh risks from a spike in Omicron coronavirus cases. At the January meeting, the BOJ raised its price forecasts but said it was in no rush to change its ultra-loose policy with inflation still distant from its target. Japan has not been immune to impact of global commodity inflation with wholesale prices rising at a record pace. But decades of low inflation have made many Japanese firms cautious of raising prices for fear of scaring away consumers, and instead have absorbed costs by streamlining operations.
Euro falls to one-month low as Ukraine tensions simmer
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.14, -2.00 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.13, +1.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.09-2.15. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 1.78%, +3.00bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.04 Moving in a range from 32.93-33.02 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.92-33.02 today. Meantime, The euro fell to a one-month low on Tuesday as tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine drew investors to the dollar, a day before the Federal Reserve is expected to reveal details on its plans to tighten monetary policy.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Investing, CEIC
