- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.975-33.995 this morning supportive level at 33.90 resistance level at 34.10
- SET Index: 1,158.1 (-1.5%), 31 Mar 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,611.9 (+0.6%), 31 Mar 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.992 (-6.43 bps), 31 Mar 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.23 (-4.0 bps), 31 Mar 2025
- Chicago PMI shows unexpected growth
- German inflation falls short of expectations in March
- Japan’s businesses show resilience
- China PMI rose ahead expected Trump tariffs
- The US dollar holds steady as the week kicks off
Chicago PMI shows unexpected growth
The Chicago PMI, a crucial gauge of the manufacturing sector's health in the Chicago area, unexpectedly increased. The actual reading of 47.6 exceeded the forecast of 45.5, showing improvement over the previous reading of 45.5. Although still below the expansion threshold, the rise signals a potential rebound in Chicago's manufacturing sector and could indicate a broader recovery in US manufacturing.
German inflation falls short of expectations in March
German inflation slowed more than expected in March, approaching the European Central Bank’s 2% target as officials weigh whether to cut interest rates again or hold off at their next meeting. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.3% year-on-year, down from 2.6% in February. Economists had anticipated a 2.4% rise. Services costs, in particular, showed a significant decline.
Japan’s businesses show resilience
Japan’s major manufacturers remained relatively optimistic, supporting the case for gradual interest rate hikes despite global trade uncertainties. The Bank of Japan’s March Tankan report showed a slight dip in the sentiment index for manufacturers to 12, while non-manufacturers rose to 35, the highest since 1991. Inflation expectations also remained solid, with the five-year forecast rising to 2.3%, the highest since 2014.
China PMI rose ahead expected Trump tariffs
China's factory activity grew at its fastest rate in a year in March, providing positive news for the world's second-largest economy ahead of anticipated US tariffs that could strain trade relations further. The official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, up from 50.2 in February, slightly exceeding economists' median forecast of 50.4. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI, which covers the construction and services sectors, increased to 50.8 from 50.4 last month, slightly below the forecast of 50.6.
The US dollar holds steady as the week kicks off
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.992, -6.43 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.98, -8.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.23, -4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.91, moving in a range of 33.975 – 33.995 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.90 – 34.10 today. The dollar strengthened in a volatile session as traders prepared for “Liberation Day” mid-week. Fed officials Williams and Barkin both suggested waiting to assess the impact of tariffs before adjusting policy, while a strong Chicago PMI report helped boost risk sentiment. The euro slightly weakened, affected by mixed German data—retail sales exceeded forecasts, but German CPI slowed—amid concerns over upcoming US tariffs. The Japanese yen reversed some of its recent gains, with USD/JPY rising from below 148.00 back toward 150.00.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
