* Putting work matters aside for a moment, I hope you and your loved ones are safe and haven't been impacted by the earthquake.
- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.945-34.00 this morning supportive level at 33.85 resistance level at 34.05
- SET Index: 1,175.5 (-1.1%), 28 Mar 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,580.9 (-2.0%), 28 Mar 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.057 (-1.77 bps), 27 Mar 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.27 (-11.0 bps), 28 Mar 2025
- Core PCE beat expectations, while real consumer spending barely grew
- Michigan consumer sentiment dips below forecast for another month
- French and Spanish inflation undershoot, backing ECB Cuts
- UK retail sales rise again and beat expectation
- The dollar drops on growth concerns ahead of the tariff announcement
Core PCE beat expectations, while real consumer spending barely grew
The headline PCE matched expectations and the previous month's figures, increasing by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year. However, the core metrics saw a larger rise, up 0.4% M/M and 2.8% Y/Y, surpassing analysts' forecasts of 0.3% and 2.7%, respectively. Despite this, core PCE, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, didn't significantly alter expectations. The latest FOMC projections forecast core PCE at 2.8% by the end of the year, suggesting minimal progress in inflation this year, possibly due to new tariff policies, though uncertainty about their impact remains. On the consumer side, personal spending grew by 0.1% on a real basis and 0.4% adjusted, below the expected 0.5%, with the previous figure revised down from 0.2% to -0.3%, signaling a slowdown in consumer activity. Personal income, on the other hand, rose by 0.8%, surpassing the 0.4% consensus, although the previous month's figure was revised down from 0.9% to 0.7%.
Michigan consumer sentiment dips below forecast for another month
The University of Michigan's March consumer sentiment was revised down to 57.0, below expectations. Future expectations dropped to 52.6, while current conditions slightly improved to 63.8. The report highlights broad concern across demographics, with two-thirds expecting rising unemployment. Inflation expectations also increased, with 1-year ahead at 5.0% and 5-year ahead at 4.1%, a 32-year high.
French and Spanish inflation undershoot, backing ECB Cuts
Inflation in France and Spain came in below expectations, reinforcing calls for further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank. In France, consumer price growth remained steady at 0.9%, contrary to predictions of an increase. In Spain, inflation slowed to 2.2%, a sharper decline than anticipated, bringing it closer to the ECB’s 2% target.
UK retail sales rise again and beat expectation
UK retail sales have surged since the beginning of 2025, indicating that households are starting to use the savings they accumulated last year. The volume of goods sold in stores and online rose by 1% in February, following a revised 1.4% jump in January. Economists had predicted a 0.4% decline.
The dollar drops on growth concerns ahead of the tariff announcement
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.057, -1.77 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 2.06, -1.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.27, -11.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.92, moving in a range of 33.945 – 34.00 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.85 – 34.05 today. The dollar weakened on Friday, with the index dropping to a low of 103.890, impacted by disappointing final March UoM data and strength in the euro. In other data, the US Core PCE for February came in above expectations but had little market impact. The euro was one of the top performers in the G10, rising against the dollar, with EUR/USD reaching 1.0844. The euro strengthened after reports that the EU is preparing to make concessions to the Trump administration in exchange for partial removal of US tariffs. Meanwhile, The Japanese yen also gained in the G10, benefiting from its safe-haven status and stronger-than-expected Tokyo CPI data, which supported the case for further BOJ policy normalization.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
