- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.855-33.885 this morning supportive level at 33.80 resistance level at 33.95
- SET Index: 1,187.9 (-0.2%), 27 Mar 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,693.3 (-0.3%), 27 Mar 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.057 (-1.77 bps), 27 Mar 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.38 (+3.0 bps), 27 Mar 2025
- US GDP in Q4 2025 grew by 2.4%, slightly exceeding expectations
- The US merchandise trade deficit decreased slightly as exports rose
- Tokyo inflation accelerates, keeping BOJ on rate hike path
- The US dollar fell as earlier tariff-driven gains faded
US GDP in Q4 2025 grew by 2.4%, slightly exceeding expectations
The US economy grew more quickly in the fourth quarter than previously thought, driven by a strong increase in corporate profits. The latest data shows GDP grew at a 2.4% annualized rate. Revisions to net exports, government spending, and business investment contributed to the upward revision. However, consumer spending growth, which makes up two-thirds of GDP, was revised down to 4%. The deflator eased to 2.3%, headline PCE held at 2.4%, and core PCE was revised down to 2.6%. Additionally, after-tax profits increased 5.9%, the largest jump in over two years, and corporate profit margins reached 15.9%, well above pre-pandemic levels.
The US merchandise trade deficit decreased slightly as exports rose
The US merchandise trade deficit shrank in February for the first time in four months, thanks to stronger exports, though high imports still suggested companies were stockpiling ahead of tariffs. The goods trade gap fell 4.9% to $147.9 billion from a record high in January, surpassing economists' expectations of $139 billion. Exports rose 4.1% to $178.6 billion, driven by increased automobile shipments. Imports dipped 0.2% from a record, with a decline in industrial supplies.
Tokyo inflation accelerates, keeping BOJ on rate hike path
The cost of living in Tokyo increased slightly faster than the previous month, keeping the Bank of Japan on course for gradual interest rate hikes. Headline inflation rose to 2.9% in March, up from 2.8% in February. The data also showed continued upward pressure from food inflation, with non-fresh foods rising 5.6%. Rice prices surged by 92.4%, marking the largest increase since data began in 1971. Meanwhile, CPI excluding fresh food climbed 2.4% year-over-year, driven by rising inflation in processed foods. This exceeded the median economist forecast of 2.2%.
The US dollar fell as earlier tariff-driven gains faded
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.057, -1.77 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 2.06, -1.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.38, +3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.93, moving in a range of 33.855 – 33.885 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.80 – 33.95 today. The dollar weakened, reversing most of Wednesday's gains, as Trump confirmed auto tariffs set to take effect April 2nd, amid ongoing growth concerns. Q4 GDP revisions showed higher GDP and sales, but lower core PCE prices, GDP deflator estimates, and consumer spending. Initial claims stayed around 225k, and continued claims fell more than expected, with markets awaiting the monthly Core PCE data. The Euro strengthened and briefly reached the 1.0800 level against the weaker dollar, with tariffs remaining the primary focus. The British pound gained, as the UK is viewed as less exposed to tariffs, though the upside in GBP/USD was limited by resistance around the 1.3000 level. The Japanese yen continued its recent decline, with USD/JPY rising back above the 151.00 mark.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
