- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.50-34.56 this morning supportive level at 34.40 resistance level at 34.70
- SET Index: 1,363.0 (-1.80%), 9 Jan 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,918.3 (+0.16%), 8 Jan 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.344 (-0.25 bps), 9 Jan 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.68 (+1.0 bps), 9 Jan 2025
- Fed officials signal interest rates likely on hold for a while
- US hiring announcements in 2024 lowest in nine years
- Euro zone consumers cut spending amid economic stagnation
- China's consumer prices decline, deepening deflation concerns
- US Dollar strengthens ahead of NFPs
Fed officials signal interest rates likely on hold for a while
Several Federal Reserve officials confirmed Thursday that interest rates will likely remain unchanged for an extended period, with cuts only occurring once inflation significantly eases. Boston Fed President Susan Collins emphasized a gradual approach due to economic uncertainty, a view shared by others including Governor Michelle Bowman. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid suggested rates may already be neutral, while Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker noted he could support rate cuts in 2025, depending on economic conditions.
US hiring announcements in 2024 lowest in nine years
According to The Challenger report, U.S. employers announced the lowest hiring plans since 2015 last year, with 769,953 hires, a 1.3% decrease from 2023. In December, hiring announcements fell to 7,999 from 11,621 in November. Slower hiring contributed to the job growth slowdown, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.3% in July before stabilizing at 4.2% in November. Planned job cuts totaled 761,358, the highest since 2020, marking a 5.5% increase from 2023 and the highest outside of the pandemic since 2009.
Euro zone consumers cut spending amid economic stagnation
Euro zone retail sales rose by just 0.1% in November, below the expected 0.4% and only partially recovering from October's 0.3% decline. Year-on-year, sales grew by 1.2%, marking a second consecutive month of slower growth. Food and fuel sales drove the monthly increase, while non-food sales fell 0.6%. Germany and Spain saw significant monthly drops, though other countries performed better.
China's consumer prices decline, deepening deflation concerns
China’s consumer inflation slowed further in December, rising just 0.1% year-on-year, marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline. Food prices were the main drag, falling to a six-month low. Core CPI, excluding food and fuel, rose 0.4%, the highest since July. For 2024, consumer prices increased only 0.2%, well below the 1.1% forecast at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, producer prices fell 2.3%, slightly less than expected, continuing a 27-month contraction as factories faced weak demand and overcapacity.
US Dollar strengthens ahead of NFPs
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.344, -0.25 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.33, +0.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.68, +1.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.67, moving in a range of 34.50 – 34.56 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.40 – 34.70 today. The US dollar strengthened against most major currencies ahead of Friday's NFP report, though trading was subdued due to the US national mourning day for Jimmy Carter, with stock markets closed and treasuries ending early. Fedspeak took center stage, with both Harker and Collins highlighting stickier inflation than expected. Collins mentioned that the December Fed rate cut was a close call but aimed to provide stability for the labor market. The euro slipped slightly below 1.0300 against the dollar, pressured by weaker retail sales. The British pound continued to struggle following recent gilt market volatility, despite reassurances from BoE's Breeden. The Japanese yen saw slight gains after recent wage data, but gains were limited with USD/JPY fluctuating around 158.00.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
