- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.64-34.67 this morning supportive level at 34.50 resistance level at 34.75
- SET Index: 1,387.7 (-0.23%), 8 Jan 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,918.3 (+0.16%), 8 Jan 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.346 (-0.15 bps), 8 Jan 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.67 (+0.0 bps), 8 Jan 2025
- Fed minutes reveal officials want to slow rate cuts
- Trump considering national emergency declaration for new tariffs
- ADP Report: US job growth hits 122,000, lowest since August
- Japan's base pay rises most in 32 years, supporting rate-hike outlook
- US Dollar holds gains after FOMC minutes
Fed minutes reveal officials want to slow rate cuts
The latest FOMC minutes from December's meeting show that Federal Reserve officials adopted a more cautious approach to rate cuts due to elevated inflation risks. They indicated that it was nearly time to slow policy easing, citing factors such as higher inflation, strong spending, and a stable labor market. Many also included 'placeholder assumptions' about potential trade and immigration policy changes under the new administration. Fed staff projected slightly lower GDP growth and a higher unemployment rate, while most participants noted increased inflation risks from stronger inflation data and potential policy changes.
Trump considering national emergency declaration for new tariffs
US President-elect Trump is reportedly considering declaring a national economic emergency to implement a new tariff program, according to CNN sources. The declaration would enable him to use the International Economic Emergency Powers Act to manage imports during an emergency. Advisors are also exploring section 338 of US trade law and revisiting section 301, which initiated Trump’s tariffs on China. Sources said, "nothing is off the table," though no final decision has been made, and it is unclear what evidence would support the emergency declaration.
ADP Report: US job growth hits 122,000, lowest since August
US private-sector hiring and wage growth slowed in December, with employment rising by 122,000, the smallest increase in four months, below the 140,000 forecast. Growth was mixed across industries, with education, health services, construction, and leisure seeing the largest gains, while manufacturing and other sectors saw declines. Median annual pay for job-stayers grew 4.6%, down from 4.8%, and job-changers saw a 7.1% increase, down from 7.2%.
Japan's base pay rises most in 32 years, supporting rate-hike outlook
Japanese workers' base salaries rose 2.7% in November, the biggest increase in 32 years, signaling a positive economic cycle and supporting the case for near-term rate hikes. Nominal wages rose 3%, surpassing the 2.7% forecast. A more stable wage measure showed full-time workers’ wages increased 2.8%, remaining above 2% for 15 months. However, real cash earnings fell 0.3%, extending a four-month decline, as inflation outpaced wage growth, particularly with higher energy costs following the end of utility subsidies.
US Dollar holds gains after FOMC minutes
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.346, -0.15 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.33, -0.5 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.67, +0.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.61, moving in a range of 34.64 – 34.67 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.50 – 34.75 today. The dollar strengthened, with the index rising above 109.00, driven by fixed income weakness, a sell-off in Gilts, and a report that US President-elect Trump may declare a national economic emergency for new tariffs. US economic data releases were mixed, while the FOMC minutes signaled a likely January pause. The euro closed slightly lower following mixed European data and a report on Trump’s tariffs. The Japanese yen weakened as USD/JPY rose above the 158.00 level earlier in the day.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
