- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.17-34.20 this morning supportive level at 34.00 resistance level at 34.30
- SET Index: 1,400.9 (+0.44%), 25 Dec 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 6,040.0 (+0.00%), 25 Dec 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.264 (-0.20 bps), 25 Dec 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.59 (+0.0 bps), 25 Dec 2024
- BOJ's Ueda avoids hinting at a January rate hike
- China maintains key rate while withdrawing largest amount of cash since 2014
- November marked the fifth straight month of export growth for Thailand
- The forex market stayed flat throughout the Christmas holiday
BOJ's Ueda avoids hinting at a January rate hike
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated his stance that the bank must carefully monitor various risks without indicating a potential interest rate hike next month. He emphasized that the timing and pace of any adjustments to monetary policy would depend on developments in economic activity, prices, and financial conditions. The bank must remain attentive to both domestic and global risks and assess how these factors could impact the outlook for Japan's economic activity, prices, and the likelihood of achieving the projected outcomes. This statement followed a dovish message from Ueda last week that surprised observers and led to a decline in the yen, raising doubts about the bank's plans to raise rates in January if no action was taken in December.
China maintains key rate while withdrawing largest amount of cash since 2014
China chose not to cut interest rates and instead withdrew the most cash since 2014 using a one-year policy tool, likely preparing for potential trade tensions with the US in the coming year. The People's Bank of China kept the one-year medium-term lending facility rate unchanged at 2%, in line with market expectations. The authorities also pulled a net 1.15 trillion yuan ($158 billion) from the financial system, the largest such withdrawal since 2014. This liquidity pull increases the likelihood of a reserve-requirement ratio cut, potentially by the end of the year.
November marked the fifth straight month of export growth for Thailand
Thai exports increased by 8.2% in November compared to the same month last year, roughly meeting analysts' expectations, though this was a slowdown from October's 14.6% growth. When excluding oil products, gold, and armaments, the export value rose by 7% from the previous month. Industrial exports grew by 9.5%, while agricultural and agro-industrial exports saw a 5.7% increase. Exports to key markets such as the US, China, the EU, Japan, and ASEAN grew by 8.3%. On the other hand, imports rose by 0.9% year-on-year in November, falling short of the expected 2.3% increase, resulting in a trade deficit of $224 million for the month. The ministry is sticking to its export growth target of 2% to 3% for 2025, citing economic uncertainties caused by escalating trade wars and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
The forex market stayed flat throughout the Christmas holiday
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.264, -0.20 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.229, -0.2 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.59, +0.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.19, moving in a range of 34.17 – 34.20 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.00 – 34.30 today. The US dollar remained stable around the 108 level, driven by thin liquidity and the absence of news over the Christmas holiday. Likewise, G10 currencies experienced minimal movement.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
