- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.67-33.70 this morning supportive level at 33.50 resistance level at 33.80
- SET Index: 1,447.5 (-0.31%), 9 Dec 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 6,034.9 (-0.30%), 10 Dec 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.307 (+0.78 bps), 9 Dec 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.22 (+2.00 bps), 10 Dec 2024
- Chinese exports grew as companies pushed to beat US tariffs
- China’s consumer inflation slows even after stimulus efforts
- China signals bolder stimulus for next year as Trump returns
- RBA keeps rates steady, expressing confidence in easing inflation
- US Dollar sees some gains as markets gear up for CPI data
Chinese exports grew as companies pushed to beat US tariffs
Chinese companies rushed to ship goods to the US before new tariffs, boosting exports in November, while imports unexpectedly dropped, signaling ongoing domestic economic weakness. Exports rose 6.7% year-on-year in November, missing the forecasted 8.5% increase and down from 12.7% in October. Shipments to the US reached their highest level since September 2022, while exports to Southeast Asia hit a record, likely as firms aimed to process goods there for shipment to the US before January 20, when Trump returns to office. In contrast, imports fell 3.9%, worse than the expected 0.3% increase, deepening the decline from the 2.3% drop in October.
China’s consumer inflation slows even after stimulus efforts
China’s consumer inflation slowed unexpectedly in November, while factory deflation eased, showing mixed effects of recent stimulus efforts. The consumer price index rose just 0.2% year-on-year, the smallest increase since June, with a slight uptick in core inflation. A slowdown in food inflation contributed to the overall modest price growth, with significant declines in the prices of pork, vegetables, and fruits — major components of the CPI basket — as the impact of summer storms on food production diminished. Factory deflation continued for the 26th month, but the producer price index dropped 2.5%, slower than in October.
China signals bolder stimulus for next year as Trump returns
China’s top leaders signaled stronger economic support for next year, using their most direct language on stimulus in years, as they prepare for a trade war under Donald Trump’s presidency. President Xi Jinping’s Politburo announced plans for a “moderately loose” monetary policy in 2025, suggesting further rate cuts and a shift from the “prudent” approach used for nearly 14 years. The group also committed to a “more proactive” fiscal policy, raising expectations for a higher fiscal deficit than the current 3% in March.
RBA keeps rates steady, expressing confidence in easing inflation
The Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady, as expected, while expressing some confidence that inflation is moving towards its target amid slowing economic growth. The central bank kept its cash rate at 4.35% for over a year, noting that some inflation risks have eased. It also dropped a previous statement about not ruling out any policy options. The bank indicated it is gaining confidence that inflation is steadily approaching the target, leading traders to increase expectations for rate cuts as soon as February.
US Dollar sees some gains as markets gear up for CPI data
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.307, +0.78 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.28, +2.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.22, +2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.92, moving in a range of 33.67 – 33.70 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.50 – 33.80 today. The US dollar strengthened against most currencies as US economic news remained sparse ahead of Wednesday's CPI report. The dollar index posted its third consecutive day of gains, peaking at 106.63, supported by weakness in major currencies and higher US yields. The euro weakened slightly, with limited new economic developments in the Eurozone. The Japanese yen continued to lose ground against the USD, with USD/JPY rising further above 151. There are few fresh factors driving the yen ahead of the BoJ's December meeting, with the probability of a 25bps rate hike lower than at the start of last week.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
