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Daily Market Insight: 26 November 2024

26 Nov 2024
  • USDTHB: moving in the range 34.69-34.75 this morning supportive level at 34.55 resistance level at 34.85
  • SET Index: 1,443.3 (-0.21%), 25 Nov 2024
  • S&P 500 Index: 5,987.4 (+0.35%), 25 Nov 2024
  • Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.437 (-0.91 bps), 25 Nov 2024
  • US 10-year treasury yield: 4.27 (-14.00 bps), 25 Nov 2024

 

  • Trump vows tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada over border
  • Trump selects hedge fund leader Bessent to Head US Treasury
  • Fed's Kashkari says a rate cut next month is worth considering
  • German business sentiment falls more than expected in November
  • Dollar eases as Treasuries rally on Bessent Treasury nomination

 

Trump vows tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada over border

President-elect Donald Trump proposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada, citing the need to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking. In posts on Truth Social, he criticized China for not addressing fentanyl trafficking and vowed to impose the additional tariffs unless China takes action. He also promised to sign an executive order for the 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada on his first day in office.

 

Trump selects hedge fund leader Bessent to Head US Treasury

President-elect Donald Trump announced he is nominating Scott Bessent, head of the macro hedge fund Key Square Group, as the next U.S. Treasury Secretary, selecting a key adviser to oversee the extensive economic agenda he plans to implement during his second term.

 

Fed's Kashkari says a rate cut next month is worth considering

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said another interest rate cut could be considered in December. He noted the economy's strength despite higher rates suggests the neutral rate might be higher, questioning the effectiveness of monetary policy in slowing demand. He also warned that while one-time tariffs may raise prices, retaliation from other countries could drive prices even higher.

 

German business sentiment falls more than expected in November

German business sentiment dropped more than anticipated in November, signaling more challenges for a country expected to be the worst performer among the G7 this year. The Ifo institute reported that its business climate index fell to 85.7 in November from 86.5 in October, below the forecast of 86.0. The decline was mainly driven by a worsened view of the current situation, which dropped to 84.3 from 85.7. Expectations also decreased slightly, falling to 87.2 from 87.3.

 

Dollar eases as Treasuries rally on Bessent Treasury nomination

The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.437, -0.91 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.42, -0.5 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.27, -14.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.51, moving in a range of 34.69 – 34.75 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.55 – 34.85 today. The dollar weakened as U.S. yields fell following President-elect Trump's nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Bessent, seen as more fiscally conservative than Trump due to his hedge fund and finance background, is expected to advocate for a more gradual approach to implementing Trump’s tariffs. The euro rose, briefly surpassing the 1.0500 level as it gained against the weaker dollar. Meanwhile, comments from ECB officials, including Lane, who highlighted the benefits of a careful, step-by-step strategy, and Nagel, who expressed growing confidence in disinflation but called for gradual rate cuts due to ongoing risks, influenced the market. The Japanese yen strengthened amid the drop in U.S. yields, but its gains were limited, with USD/JPY fluctuating around the 154.00 level.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC