- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.59-34.62 this morning supportive level at 34.45 resistance level at 34.75
- SET Index: 1,462.5 (+0.16%), 20 Nov 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,917.1 (+0.00%), 20 Nov 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.4458 (-0.04 bps), 20 Nov 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.41 (+2.00 bps), 20 Nov 2024
- Fed's Bowman advocates caution on future rate cuts
- UK inflation hits 2.3%, above forecast, driven by energy
- South Korea's early export data show growth
- Investors drive US dollar higher, focusing on the Federal Reserve's outlook
Fed's Bowman advocates caution on future rate cuts
Governor Bowman expressed concerns that progress in reducing inflation seems to have stalled, raising risks to price stability. However, she noted that labor market conditions could still deteriorate. She also commented that October payroll growth likely matched recent averages, once adjusting for temporary factors like hurricanes and Boeing strikes. On the neutral rate, she indicated that her own estimate is significantly higher than it was pre-COVID, cautioning that the Fed might be closer to a neutral policy stance than currently realized. Bowman advocates for a careful, measured approach to policy.
UK inflation hits 2.3%, above forecast, driven by energy
UK inflation surged more than expected in October, rising above the Bank of England's 2% target, which investors interpreted as reducing the likelihood of further interest rate cuts in the near future. Consumer price inflation climbed to 2.3% from 1.7% in September, driven by a sharp increase in energy costs. This was higher than the 2.2% forecast by both the Bank of England and analysts. Services inflation, closely monitored for signs of domestic economic pressures, stayed high at 5%, matching the Bank’s prediction and up from 4.9% in September. Additionally, core inflation rose to 3.3%, up slightly from 3.2% the previous month.
South Korea's early export data show growth
South Korea’s preliminary trade data indicated a rebound in exports in November, offering a positive outlook for the economy amid growing concerns over global trade under the new US administration. Exports rose by 5.8% in the first 20 days of November compared to the same period last year, a turnaround from the 0.2% decline initially reported for October. Imports fell by 1%, leading to a surplus of $798 million. The early trade figures were not affected by differences in the number of working days.
Investors drive US dollar higher, focusing on the Federal Reserve's outlook
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.4458, -0.04 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.42, -1.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.41, +2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.55, moving in a range of 34.59 – 34.62 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.45 – 34.75 today. The dollar gained despite light macro news, with Fed officials, including Cook and Bowman, signaling flexibility in policy. The euro fell below 1.0600 against the stronger dollar, while ECB's Stournaras warned against inflation undershooting but maintained rates will stay restrictive. The British pound couldn't hold onto early gains from stronger-than-expected UK inflation, briefly pushing GBP/USD above 1.2700 before reversing as the dollar strengthened. The Japanese yen weakened, with USD/JPY staying above 155.00, supported by mild US yield increases and the dollar's dominance.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
