- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.58-34.62 this morning supportive level at 34.45 resistance level at 34.70
- SET Index: 1,452.8 (+0.70%), 18 Nov 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,893.6 (+0.39%), 18 Nov 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.448 (+0.65 bps), 18 Nov 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.42 (-1.00 bps), 18 Nov 2024
- US homebuilder sentiment hits seven-month high post-election
- BOJ keeps markets guessing about rate hikes
- RBA considers the cash rate level to be suitable
- Exports and cash handouts have boosted Thai growth
- Dollar rises against yen on BoJ rate hike uncertainty
US homebuilder sentiment hits seven-month high post-election
The NAHB housing market index for November rose to 46.0, beating expectations and the previous 43.0. All three components improved: current sales conditions rose to 49.0, sales expectations for the next six months increased to 64, and buyer traffic gained three points to 32. The report showed 31% of builders cut home prices, with the average reduction at 5%. Additionally, 60% of builders used sales incentives. Analysts noted that builders are less pessimistic due to the end of election uncertainty and potential regulatory relief under a Republican government. However, challenges like high mortgage rates and labor shortages remain, which could worsen with mass deportation policies.
BOJ keeps markets guessing about rate hikes
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Monday that the central bank will continue raising rates if economic and inflation trends follow its forecasts, but did not indicate whether a hike would come in December. In a later press conference, he warned that keeping real interest rates too low for an extended period could lead to excessive inflation, forcing the BoJ to raise rates quickly.
RBA considers the cash rate level to be suitable
Australia's central bank sees its current policy as effective in addressing high core inflation. In its recent meeting, the RBA discussed possible scenarios that could lead to rate cuts, hikes, or rates staying higher for longer. Staff forecasts assumed the cash rate would remain unchanged for several months before being lowered in 2025 and 2026, with risks seen as "balanced.
Exports and cash handouts have boosted Thai growth
Thailand's economy grew more than expected in the third quarter, driven by stronger exports and government spending. Gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.0% compared to the same period last year, surpassing the 2.6% forecast and the revised 2.2% growth in the second quarter. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.2%, marking the fastest growth in 18 months and outperforming both the 0.8% forecast and the previous quarter's growth. The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) projects GDP growth of 2.6% for 2024 and a range of 2.3%-3.3% for 2025. However, they warned that potential trade barriers from US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies could create uncertainty for exports.
Dollar rises against yen on BoJ rate hike uncertainty
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.448, +0.65 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.43, +1.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.42, -1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.77, moving in a range of 34.58 – 34.62 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.45 – 34.70 today. The dollar weakened early in the week due to profit-taking and limited news, with few key events in the US aside from Nvidia earnings and Flash PMIs. The euro rose briefly above 1.0600, supported by dollar weakness, while ECB's Makhlouf said he'd need "overwhelming" evidence to back a 50bps rate cut. The yen underperformed, failing to benefit from the weaker dollar after BoJ Governor Ueda signaled no urgency for a rate hike.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
