- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.82-33.83 this morning supportive level at 33.70 resistance level at 34.00
- SET Index: 1,466.0 (+1.29%), 31 Oct 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,705.5 (-1.88%), 31 Oct 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.443 (+0.65 bps), 31 Oct 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.28 (-1.00 bps), 31 Oct 2024
- Key US inflation gauge and spending pick up in solid economy
- US jobless claims fall to five-month low as storm impact fades
- The BOJ keeps its policy steady but leaves open the possibility of a near-term rate hike
- Eurozone inflation rises, supporting a cautious approach to rate cuts
- Dollar falls against yen, US data leaves rate cut hopes intact
Key US inflation gauge and spending pick up in solid economy
The September PCE data met expectations, with a 0.2% month-over-month increase, up from 0.1%. Year-over-year, it rose by 2.1%, matching forecasts, while the prior figure was revised to 2.3%. Core metrics also aligned with predictions, increasing 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, slightly above the expected 2.6%. In addition, personal income increased by 0.3%, aligning with forecasts, while adjusted consumption rose by 0.5%, surpassing the 0.4% estimate and the prior revised figure of 0.3%. Overall, the data was as anticipated, but the higher core figure is unlikely to affect the Fed's strategy ahead of next week’s meeting.
US jobless claims fall to five-month low as storm impact fades
Applications for US unemployment benefits dropped last week to their lowest level since May, as southeastern states continued to recover from two severe storms. Initial claims fell by 12,000 to 216,000 for the week ending Oct. 26, below the median forecast of 230,000. The four-week moving average declined to 236,500, while continuing claims fell to 1.86 million.
The BOJ keeps its policy steady but leaves open the possibility of a near-term rate hike
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) unanimously decided to maintain its short-term policy rate at 0.25%, as anticipated, citing various uncertainties impacting the Japanese economy, including developments in the U.S. economy, the results of the U.S. presidential election, and domestic political instability. Nevertheless, the BoJ remains confident that it is on track to meet its inflation target, indicating the possibility of another rate hike in the coming months. In addition, the BoJ governor notes that currency movements are having a major impact on the economy and price trend.
Eurozone inflation rises, supporting a cautious approach to rate cuts
Eurozone inflation in October rose more than expected, reaching 2% year-over-year, up from 1.7% the previous month and exceeding the forecast of 1.9%. This increase, driven by smaller declines in energy prices and higher food costs. Meanwhile, core inflation remained steady at 2.7%, with service inflation unchanged at 3.9%. These figures reinforce ECB officials' warnings against aggressive rate cuts amid the region's economic struggles.
Dollar falls against yen, US data leaves rate cut hopes intact
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.443, +0.65 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.425, +1.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.28, -1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.75, moving in a range of 33.82 – 33.83 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.70 – 34.00 today. The dollar weakened slightly, pushing the index below 104.00 due to a stronger yen and euro. Recent data was mixed: most PCE price metrics met estimates, but employment costs were slightly softer. The euro rose for the fourth consecutive day after better-than-expected EU inflation data, remaining within the 1.0800 range against the dollar. The yen performed well, with USD/JPY attempting to fall below 152.00 following the BoJ's policy decision and Governor Ueda's press conference, where he downplayed financial stability risks that could hinder further tightening.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
