- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.75-33.80 this morning supportive level at 33.60 resistance level at 33.85
- SET Index: 1,463.4 (+0.19%), 25 Oct 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,808.1 (-0.03%), 25 Oct 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.403 (-2.24 bps), 25 Oct 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.25 (+4.00 bps), 25 Oct 2024
- US core capital goods orders are strong, but business equipment spending is cooling slightly
- US consumer sentiment reaches six-month high thanks to lower interest rates
- German business sentiment rises, giving a rare boost to the struggling economy
- Japan's ruling coalition loses majority, leaving election results uncertain
- Dollar on track for weekly gain; next week's payrolls looms large
US core capital goods orders are strong, but business equipment spending is cooling slightly
Overall, durable goods data was mixed. The headline figure decreased by 0.8%, matching the previous month's decline but not as steep as the anticipated 1.0% drop. However, excluding transportation, there was a 0.4% increase, surpassing the expected -0.1%, with the prior figure revised up to 0.6% from 0.5%. In contrast, excluding defense, there was a 1.1% drop, with the prior figure significantly revised to -1.3% from -0.2%. Economists note that core orders grew strongly and mention that recent jumps in aircraft investment have boosted overall equipment spending, but this trend is expected to decline in Q4.
US consumer sentiment reaches six-month high thanks to lower interest rates
The final sentiment from the University of Michigan for October was revised up to 70.5 from 68.9, exceeding the expected 69.0. Expectations and Conditions also increased to 74.1 and 64.9, respectively. One-year inflation expectations fell to 2.7% from 2.9%, while the five-year rate held steady at 3.0%. The report attributes the sentiment rise to improved buying conditions for durable goods, partly due to lower interest rates. It also notes a decline in consumer expectations for a Harris presidency, down from 63% to 57%, while Republican optimism for a Trump presidency increased by 8%.
German business sentiment rises, giving a rare boost to the struggling economy
German business morale improved more than expected in October, offering hope for some respite towards the end of the year in the economy's grinding battle with industrial woes and weak global demand. The Ifo institute's expectations gauge increased to 87.3 from 86.4 in September, marking the highest level since June and exceeding economists' forecasts. A measure of current conditions also improved.
Japan's ruling coalition loses majority, leaving election results uncertain
Japan's ruling coalition faced a major defeat in Sunday's election, losing its parliamentary majority and creating uncertainty about the future government and economy. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and junior partner Komeito won 215 seats, down from 279, marking their worst performance since briefly losing power in 2009.
Dollar on track for weekly gain; next week's payrolls looms large
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.403, -2.24 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.395, -1.5 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.25, +4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.78, moving in a range of 33.75 – 33.80 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.60 – 33.85 today. The Dollar rose on Friday, finishing the day and the week strongly, as the Trump trade was emphasized during a time with little major data before important events in the next two weeks. The euro fell against the Dollar amid a wave of comments from the ECB and better-than-expected German Ifo data. The Japanese yen declined ahead of two key events: Sunday’s general election, where the ruling LDP is expected to lose its majority but remain the largest party, and the BoJ's rate decision on Thursday, likely keeping rates unchanged while signaling future easing. Currently, USD/JPY is near session highs of 152.37.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
