- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.205-34.22 this morning supportive level at 34.10 resistance level at 34.30
- SET Index: 1,168.0 (+0.9%), 1 Apr 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,633.1 (+0.4%), 1 Apr 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 1.975 (-1.74 bps), 1 Apr 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.17 (-6.0 bps), 1 Apr 2025
- US manufacturing activity contracts for the first time in 2025
- US job openings fall, layoffs steady in slowing labor market
- Euro-Zone inflation cools as ECB weighs rate-cut pause
- China private manufacturing PMI gauge tops forecasts despite Trump tariffs
- The dollar held steady after a volatile session with weak data
US manufacturing activity contracts for the first time in 2025
ISM Manufacturing PMI showed a decline in March, with the headline falling to 49.0 from 50.2, below expectations. New orders, employment, and production all dropped, while inventories increased, likely due to stockpiling ahead of the April 2nd tariff announcement. The inflation gauge for prices paid surged to 69.4, higher than the expected 65.0. Analysts notes that while still below pandemic levels, it’s expected to rise further with new tariffs next month. Respondents expressed concern over tariffs, with many noting their negative impact on orders, business conditions, and profits.
US job openings fall, layoffs steady in slowing labor market
The February JOLTS report showed a decline in job openings to 7.568 million from 7.762 million, falling short of the 7.616 million forecast. The vacancy rate also dropped to 4.5% from 4.7%, while the quits rate remained steady at 2.0%. Analysts noted that heightened economic policy uncertainty began to affect labor demand in February and cautioned that a larger decline is likely ahead due to increasing uncertainty in the past month.
Euro-Zone inflation cools as ECB weighs rate-cut pause
Euro-area inflation continued to edge closer to the European Central Bank’s 2% target, as officials consider whether to keep lowering interest rates. CPI increased by 2.2% in March compared to a year earlier, down from 2.3% in February, in line with the median estimate. Services inflation, a key concern for policymakers, eased to 3.4% from 3.7%, continuing a decline that began in February. Core inflation also slowed slightly more than expected, dropping to 2.4%.
China private manufacturing PMI gauge tops forecasts despite Trump tariffs
China's manufacturing activity grew at its fastest rate in four months, showing unexpected resilience, though this may be challenged as Donald Trump plans to increase tariffs on exports to the US. The Caixin manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.2 in March from 50.8 in February, surpassing the median forecast of 50.6. The results were largely consistent with an official survey released on Monday, which indicated the fastest manufacturing expansion in a year.
The dollar held steady after a volatile session with weak data
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 1.975, -1.74 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB353A) was 1.97, -1.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.17, -6.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.07, moving in a range of 34.205 – 34.22 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.10 – 34.30 today. The dollar remained mostly unchanged after a volatile session marked by soft data releases, with market participants awaiting Wednesday's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement. President Trump is reportedly considering three main options: blanket 20% tariffs, a tiered system with three rates, and country-specific tariffs, though an official suggested that a blanket 20% tariff is the least likely. The euro underperformed, falling below the 1.0800 mark against the dollar following weak PMI data and concerns over looming tariffs, with the EU considering targeting major US tech firms in retaliation. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen gained slightly against the dollar, with USD/JPY fluctuating after dipping below the 150.00 level due to weaker US yields.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
