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Daily Market Insight: 27 November 2024

27 Nov 2024
  • USDTHB: moving in the range 34.65-34.70 this morning supportive level at 34.50 resistance level at 34.75
  • SET Index: 1,438.3 (-0.35%), 26 Nov 2024
  • S&P 500 Index: 6,021.6 (+0.57%), 26 Nov 2024
  • Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.427 (-0.99 bps), 26 Nov 2024
  • US 10-year treasury yield: 4.3 (+3.00 bps), 26 Nov 2024

 

  • Fed Minutes indicate officials support gradual rate cuts
  • US Consumer Confidence rises to highest in more than a year
  • Australia CPI misses expectations in Oct, underlying inflation rises
  • Thai exports surpass expectations with a robust 14.6% growth in October
  • The USD weakened after losing the Trump-tariff boost

 

Fed Minutes indicate officials support gradual rate cuts

The minutes from the FOMC's November 7th meeting revealed that participants favored gradual rate cuts towards a neutral stance due to uncertainty about the neutral rate. Some suggested holding rates if inflation stays high, while others called for faster easing if the labor market or economy weakens. Most agreed that risks to price stability and employment were balanced, with inflation easing but core inflation still high. While most saw inflation returning to 2%, some noted it could take longer. The minutes provided little clarity on whether the Fed will cut rates or pause in December.

 

US Consumer Confidence rises to highest in more than a year

US consumer confidence rose in November to its highest level in over a year, driven by optimism about the economy and labor market following Donald Trump's election win. The Conference Board's confidence index climbed 2.1 points to 111.7, matching expectations. The current conditions index reached an eight-month high, while the expectations measure for the next six months hit nearly a three-year peak.

 

Australia CPI misses expectations in Oct, underlying inflation rises

Australian consumer price index (CPI) inflation in October grew less than expected, aided by government subsidies that helped reduce energy costs. CPI inflation increased by 2.1% year-on-year, below the anticipated 2.3% and unchanged from the previous month. However, core inflation, measured by the annual trimmed mean, rose to 3.5% from 3.2%, staying well above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2% to 3%. The persistence of underlying inflation suggests ongoing price pressures, driven by strong household spending and a robust job market.

 

Thai exports surpass expectations with a robust 14.6% growth in October

Thailand's exports in October grew 14.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 5.2%, driven by strong demand for technology-related goods. Imports rose 15.9%, surpassing the forecasted 6.5%, leading to a trade deficit of $0.79 billion for the month. For the first 10 months of 2024, exports totaled $250.4 billion (up 4.9%), while imports reached $257.15 billion (up 6.6%), resulting in a trade deficit of $6.75 billion.

 

The USD weakened after losing the Trump-tariff boost

The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.427, -0.99 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.40, -2.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.30, +3.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.73, moving in a range of 34.65 – 34.70 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.50 – 34.75 today. The dollar weakened after an initial lift from Trump’s tariff news, with the DXY dropping below 107.00 as yen strength countered the dollar's gains. The release of the FOMC Minutes had minimal effect on the dollar's movement. The euro edged lower with limited movement, while ECB comments offered little new insight. The yen was the top performer, gaining against the dollar as USD/JPY dropped toward 153.00, supported by stronger-than-expected Services PPI data, which raised expectations for the BoJ to resume rate hikes.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC