Monthly economic update: February 2023
Executive summary
Global Economy
- Global economy is expected to bottom out in 2023 after inflation fight and Russia-Ukraine war. In the end of 2022, Global trade declined according to weak global demands. Accordingly, Industrial productions were continuously in negative territory in several nations.
- Global recession concerns have been recently abated with the improvement in production activities, as shown by the easing of downturn in global manufacturing PMI in January 2023. Likewise, the contractions in New orders and New export orders were eased.
- The softened condition of global demands have been accompanied by an improvement in labor markets in several nations, except UK. Moreover, China’s reopening would pave the way for rapid rebound in global tourism, especially Asia tourism.
- Global price pressure was in a moderate decline in January 2023. The underlying reasons were due to a slower easing in global supply chain situation and an increase in non-energy components. However, the prices of crude oils started to rise, contrasting with the falls in natural gas’ prices.
Domestic Economy
- In Dec22, Thai economy continued to recover, private consumption indicators slightly improved in line with increases in foreign tourist figures. Several fundamental factors including employment, incomes, and consumer confidence continued to improve.
- Private investment indicators declined in this month, mainly from the machinery and equipment category corresponding with overall industrial production.
- The value of merchandise exports contracted sharply. This was due to the further decrease of major product sectors such as rubber, cassava, auto and parts, and HDD etc. By key partners, most of export figures also declined.
- Foreign tourists increased consecutively to reach a new peak over 2 million persons. The major groups still came from East Asia. Moreover, Russia and Europe tourists had continuously rebounded.
- Headline inflation in Jan23 decelerated further due to drops in food and energy prices, while core inflation slightly declined but remaining mark over 3% level.
Financial Market
- Major central banks around the world hike policy rate to curb rising inflation but with slower pace. The Federal Reserve delivered only 25-bps hike on 31 January – 1 February 2023 meeting.
- Investors went into long term bond tenor, for both US and Thai bond, due to recession concerns. Moreover, 10y-2y yield spread for US government bond dropped below zero, signaling higher possibility of coming US economy recession. Meanwhile, 10y-2y yield spread for Thai government bond was still in positive territory.
- USDTHB largely appreciated in January, ending 32.77 level. It could be around 34.00-34.50 in February. US Dollar would appreciate in short-term as better-than-expected US jobs report raised the likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping on with its inflation-fighting interest rate hikes for longer.
