Monthly economic update: Dec 2023
Executive summary
Global Economy
- In November 2023, global economic momentum had been continuously softened with weak productions and services activities. This is in accordance with the influences of monetary policy tightening in major economies, which comes to an end in December. Market participants have put more weights on interest rate cuts from major central banks over the next year.
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US economic activity had been expanding at a modest pace with supports from labor market resilience and private consumption.
- China’s economy slowly recovered with moderate domestic demands while economic policies will continue to provide support for economic recovery
Domestic Economy
- In October 2023, the Thai economy continued to recover. Private consumption and investment improved in most categories. The number of foreign tourist arrivals rebounded slightly compared to previous month in several nationalities, especially from the coming of long-haul tourists, while tourists from China and India remained.
- The value of merchandise exports in October expanded further in a year, that increased from the previous month in key agricultural, agro-industry and industrial products. Meanwhile import growth turned positive in 8 months following the import of capital goods.
- Headline inflation in November 2023 was contracted in second-consecutive month, which was due mainly to energy prices including electricity and retail oil price, on the back of government measures. Moreover, food prices also dropped further regarding to high-base effect and less supply of fresh food. Meanwhile, core inflation increased slightly decreased due to higher prepared food prices.
Financial Market
- Major central banks are near the end of their hiking cycle. Market participants and futures market have pointed out possibilities that the Fed would start cutting interest rates as early as in March 2024.
- Investors went into long term bond tenor, for both US and Thai bond, due to anticipation that policy rates move toward their peaks. Meanwhile, 10y-2y yield spread for Thai government bond was still in positive territory.
- USDTHB appreciated in November, ending 34.96 level. It could be around 34.80-35.50 in December. US Dollar dropped from its high levels following market bets of Fed cutting interest rates.
