- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.84-33.905 this morning supportive level at 33.70 resistance level at 33.95
- SET Index: 1,282.1 (+1.57%), 7 Feb 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,026.0 (-0.95%), 7 Feb 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.271 (-0.63 bps), 7 Feb 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.49 (+4.0 bps), 7 Feb 2025
- Trump to implement reciprocal tariffs, affecting "everyone"
- US economy adds 143,000 jobs in January, missing expectations
- US consumer sentiment hits a seven-month low over price concern
- China's consumer inflation rises as holiday spending increases
- Dollar gains as Trump hints at reciprocal tariffs
Trump to implement reciprocal tariffs, affecting "everyone"
President Trump announced plans to unveil reciprocal tariffs this week, escalating his trade dispute with US partners. He mentioned the measures would affect "everyone" but didn’t provide specifics. Trump suggested the tariffs could replace the 10-20% universal import duties from his campaign and hinted that automobile tariffs were under consideration.
US economy adds 143,000 jobs in January, missing expectations
Non-farm payrolls added 143k jobs in January, below the expected 170k and down from the revised 307k in December. However, two-month revisions added 237k, softening the miss. January job growth was driven by health care, retail trade, and government, while mining, oil and gas extraction, temporary help services, and auto manufacturing saw declines. The unemployment rate fell to 4.0%, and participation increased. Wages rose 4.1% year-over-year, above the expected 3.8%, but the Fed has downplayed concerns that the labor market is driving inflation. Final BLS revisions showed employment was 589k lower than previously reported, but better than the August estimate. Despite the NFP miss, the labor market remains strong, supporting the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady. Markets expect a rate cut by July, with a 50% chance of a second cut by year-end.
US consumer sentiment hits a seven-month low over price concern
The University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropped to 67.8 from 71.1, below expectations. Both the conditions and expectations indexes also declined, with inflation expectations rising to 4.3% for the next year and 3.3% long-term. All five index components worsened, particularly a 12% drop in durable goods buying conditions, partly due to tariff concerns. Personal finance expectations fell 6% month-over-month, reaching their lowest since October 2023, as many fear a return of high inflation.
China's consumer inflation rises as holiday spending increases
China's consumer inflation rose 0.5% in January, boosted by increased spending during the Lunar New Year, though deflationary pressures remain. This marks a pickup from December's 0.1% rise and was above the 0.4% forecast. Service prices increased by 0.9%. Meanwhile, producer price index (PPI) deflation continued for the 28th month, with a 2.3% decline.
Dollar gains as Trump hints at reciprocal tariffs
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.271, -0.63 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.27, -1.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.49, +4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.69, moving in a range of 33.84 – 33.905 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.70 – 33.95 today. The dollar strengthened against most currencies in a risk-off market, driven by renewed concerns over tariffs and trade tensions. G10 currencies, excluding the CAD, were affected by market expectations of escalating trade tensions from the US. The strength of the dollar overshadowed the euro, with EUR/USD dropping to a low of 1.0306. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen, usually favored in risk-off sentiment, was pressured by Trump’s tariff remarks targeting Japan, causing USD/JPY to weaken to around 151.30.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
