- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.58-33.59 this morning supportive level at 33.50 resistance level at 33.80
- SET Index: 1,286.7 (-1.10%), 5 Feb 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,061.5 (+0.39%), 5 Feb 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.273 (-3.55 bps), 5 Feb 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.43 (-9.0 bps), 5 Feb 2025
- US services index weakens as order growth slows
- U.S. private payrolls rise by more than expected in January
- China's services index unexpectedly weakens despite holiday spending
- The dollar weakened for a third day as trade tensions eased and data mixed
US services index weakens as order growth slows
The US ISM Services PMI for January fell to 52.8 from 54.0, below the expected 54.3. Nonetheless, the latest figure is slightly firmer than the average for last year. Business activity and new orders dropped, while employment rose to its highest level since 2023, indicating a strong labor market. The inflation measure of prices paid decreased. Economists sees the drop as supporting slower GDP growth, although past surveys haven't been reliable for predicting GDP. The report also noted poor weather affecting business and production, with some concerns over potential US tariffs, but no significant current impacts.
U.S. private payrolls rise by more than expected in January
Private payrolls rose more than expected in January, signaling strong job growth despite growing uncertainty. ADP employment increased by 183,000, following a revised 176,000 rise in December, surpassing the forecasted 150,000. Growth was driven by the service sector, particularly in trade, transportation, and leisure/hospitality. In goods-producing industries, construction and mining saw gains, while manufacturing employment dropped. The data shows the labor market continues to grow at a healthy pace, with the six-month average payroll increase reaching its fastest rate since early 2023. Despite a drop in job vacancies and slowing wage growth, hiring remains strong, and layoffs are low.
China's services index unexpectedly weakens despite holiday spending
China’s services sector growth slowed unexpectedly in January, though it continued its expansion streak, supported by Lunar New Year demand. The Caixin China services PMI fell to 51 from 52.2, missing the forecast of 52.4. While business activity and new orders grew, their pace slowed to the weakest in four months. New export business resumed growth. This follows a government survey showing a similar slowdown in services, while construction and manufacturing contracted.
The dollar weakened for a third day as trade tensions eased and data mixed
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.273, -3.55 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.29, -3.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.43, -9.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.68, moving in a range of 33.58 – 33.59 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.50 – 33.80 today. The dollar weakened on the day, with the index dropping further below the 108.00 mark due to lower yields, optimism about trade relations, and mixed economic data. There were several comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Barkin, who favored a wait-and-see approach but indicated a tendency toward further rate cuts this year. The euro gained from dollar weakness, reaching the 1.0400 level. ECB statements were somewhat mixed, with Lane emphasizing a data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach and avoiding commitment to any specific rate path, while Centeno expressed hopes for reaching a 2% deposit rate sooner rather than later. The Japanese yen strengthened as USD/JPY fell below the 153.00 level, driven by lower US yields and a recent increase in Japanese wage data.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
