- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.025-34.17 this morning supportive level at 33.90 resistance level at 34.20
- SET Index: 1,304.4 (-0.77%), 3 Feb 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 5,994.6 (-0.76%), 3 Feb 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.312 (+1.02 bps), 3 Feb 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.54 (-4.0 bps), 3 Feb 2025
- Trump and leaders of Canada and Mexico announce one-month tariff delay after talks
- US manufacturing activity grows for the first time since 2022
- Euro-zone inflation unexpectedly rises, reinforcing ECB's cautious stance
- Dollar fluctuates amid Trump's tariffs negotiations
Trump and leaders of Canada and Mexico announce one-month tariff delay after talks
President Trump agreed to delay the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for a month after both nations pledged stronger actions to combat migration and drug trafficking, avoiding a trade war for now. Canada will appoint a fentanyl czar, designate cartels as terrorist groups, and launch a joint "strike force" with the US to tackle organized crime and drug trafficking. At the same time, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Trump agreed that Mexico would deploy 10,000 National Guard troops to the border to curb fentanyl and migration, a crucial condition for Trump to lift the tariffs. For China, Trump's 10% tariffs on China are still scheduled to take effect on Tuesday. However, he mentioned that his administration plans to hold talks with China, suggesting a potential delay of the tariff.
US manufacturing activity grows for the first time since 2022
US factory activity grew in January for the first time since 2022, driven by an increase in orders and faster production, signaling a positive manufacturing outlook. ISM Manufacturing climbed to 50.9, up from 49.2 and above the expected 49.8. New orders rose by 3 points to 55.1, marking the strongest growth since May 2022. This marked the fifth consecutive monthly increase, indicating rising demand that spurred higher output. The inflation measures also rose to 54.9. The surveys were conducted before President Trump announced 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, which could disrupt supply chains for US manufacturers.
Euro-zone inflation unexpectedly rises, reinforcing ECB's cautious stance
Euro-area inflation unexpectedly increased, supporting the European Central Bank's cautious approach to rate cuts as the weakening economy deals with rising trade threats from the US. In January, the CPI grew by 2.5% compared to the previous year, up from 2.4% in December and surpassing expectations. Core inflation remained higher than forecasted at 2.7%, while price increases in the key services sector slightly slowed. The data follows reports from Europe's leading economies, showing stable inflation in Germany and France, with accelerations in Italy and Spain.
Dollar fluctuates amid Trump's tariffs negotiations
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.312, +1.02 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.32, +1.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.54, -4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.65, moving in a range of 33.87 – 33.92 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.85 – 34.20 today. The dollar initially gained strength following Trump's tariff announcement on Saturday, but most of its early gains were reversed after Mexican President Sheinbaum announced a one-month delay on US tariffs. However, the index stayed positive as market participants awaited the outcome of talks between President Trump and Canadian PM Trudeau, which also resulted in a 30-day tariff delay. Despite several strong data releases, the focus remained on the tariff news. The euro faced pressure as President Trump considered imposing a 10% tariff on the eurozone. The Japanese yen outperformed, with USD/JPY pressured due to haven demand and weaker US yields.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
