- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.025-34.17 this morning supportive level at 33.90 resistance level at 34.20
- SET Index: 1,314.5 (-1.60%), 31 Jan 2025
- S&P 500 Index: 6,040.5 (-0.51%), 31 Jan 2025
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.302 (+3.11 bps), 31 Jan 2025
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.58 (+6.0 bps), 31 Jan 2025
- Trump imposed broad tariffs on US trading partners
- Fed’s favored inflation gauge ends 2024 with a muted advance
- German and French inflation remain stable at the start of the year
- Thai factory output misses expectations due to slumping car production
- US dollar climbs as markets evaluate tariff messages
Trump imposed broad tariffs on US trading partners
On Saturday, Trump signed orders imposing a 10% levy on Canadian energy imports, as well as 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on Chinese imports. The tariffs will take effect at midnight on Tuesday. In response, Canada and Mexico pledged to retaliate, sparking a trade war that is expected to alter global supply chains.
Fed’s favored inflation gauge ends 2024 with a muted advance
US PCE data matched expectations for both headline and core, with consumption surpassing forecasts, similar to the Q4 report released Thursday. Core PCE rose 0.156%, slightly below the 0.2% forecast but up from 0.1% last month. For annual basis, the data increased 2.8%, steady from the previous month. Meanwhile, headline month-over-month rose 0.2557%, in line with expectations, while yearly term rose to 2.6%, up from 2.4% in November.
German and French inflation remain stable at the start of the year
German inflation stayed high, signaling to the European Central Bank that caution is still required as it proceeds with lowering interest rates. In January, consumer prices increased by 2.8% compared to the previous year, maintaining the same rate as in December and aligning with the median forecast. On the other hand, French consumer prices unexpectedly remained unchanged at the beginning of the year, rising by 1.8% from January of the previous year.
Thai factory output misses expectations due to slumping car production
Thailand's manufacturing production index fell 2.11% in December, worse than the expected 0.50% drop, due to a slowdown in the automotive industry and weak demand. This followed a 3.58% decline in November. Car production sank 17.37% in December, marking the 17th month of decline, hurt by low domestic sales, high production costs, and cheap imports from China. For the entire year of 2024, factory output decreased by 1.79%.
US dollar climbs as markets evaluate tariff messages
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.302, +3.11 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.31, +3.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.58, +6.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.65, moving in a range of 34.025 – 34.17 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.90 – 34.20 today. The dollar strengthened on Friday following a volatile day, driven by mixed tariff reports. Key developments included a Reuters report suggesting President Trump would delay tariffs on Canada and Mexico until March 1st, instead of imposing them on February 1st. This caused the dollar to dip to a low of 107.78, benefiting G10 currencies, particularly the CAD and MXN. However, the White House quickly refuted the Reuters report, confirming that the February 1st deadline remained, and that Trump would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on China. This clarification resulted in a reversal of those movements, with the index climbing to a high of 108.470. The euro traded between 1.0361 and 1.0433, falling for the fourth day as traders digested the ECB’s rate decision. The Japanese yen underperformed throughout the day and overnight, following a wave of data from Japan. USD/JPY stayed within the 153.78-155.23 range from Thursday and is near its 50-day moving average at 154.84.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
