- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.95-32.99 this morning supportive level at 32.80 resistance level at 33.10
- SET Index: 1,447.9 (-0.26%), 23 Sep 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,718.6 (+0.3%), 23 Sep 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.492 (+2.35 bps), 23 Sep 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 3.75 (+2.00 bps), 23 Sep 2024
- US business activity steady in September; price pressures pick up
- Fed officials leave door open to another large Interest-rate cut
- Euro zone business activity unexpectedly shrank in September
- China's central bank injects cash, lowers 14-day reverse repo rate
- Dollar rebounds from lows; euro impacted by weak PMI data
US business activity steady in September; price pressures pick up
U.S. business activity remained stable in September, but average prices for goods and services increased at their fastest rate in six months, suggesting a potential rise in inflation ahead. The S&P Global Manufacturing Flash PMI unexpectedly fell to 47.0 from 47.9, below the anticipated 48.5. The Services PMI also declined, but less than expected, coming in at 55.4 compared to the forecast of 55.2 and a previous reading of 55.7. As a result, the Composite PMI edged down to 54.4 from 54.6.
Fed officials leave door open to another large Interest-rate cut
Fed's Goolsbee stated that several more rate cuts will likely be needed next year, stressing the importance of significant reductions. He supported the recent 50 basis point cut, indicating a focus on employment risks. Fed's Bostic remarked that the economy is normalizing faster than expected, making it essential for monetary policy to adjust, and he also backed the 50 basis point cut as a compromise amid inflation and job market uncertainties. Lastly, Fed's Kashkari noted a shift toward risks of labor market weakening and higher unemployment, calling the 50 basis point cut appropriate. He projected a policy rate of 4.4% by the end of 2024 and 3.4% by the end of 2025.
Euro zone business activity unexpectedly shrank in September
Business activity in the euro zone unexpectedly declined sharply this month, with the services sector stagnating and manufacturing worsening. HCOB's preliminary composite PMI fell to 48.9 from 51.0 in August, below the forecast of 50.5. Overall demand decreased at the fastest rate in eight months, with the new business index dropping to 47.2. The manufacturing PMI, expected at 45.6, fell to 44.8, and the output index dropped to 44.5. Business optimism waned, as the factory future output index fell to an 11-month low of 52.0. The services PMI also dropped to 50.5, missing expectations. The downturn was widespread, with Germany's decline deepening and France returning to contraction after a boost from the Olympics.
China's central bank injects cash, lowers 14-day reverse repo rate
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut the 14-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points to 1.85%, signaling a desire to ease monetary conditions. Analysts noted that this move wasn't a major policy easing, as the PBOC typically uses 14-day repos to support the banking system during long holidays, with a similar action last taken before a spring break in February.
Dollar rebounds from lows; euro impacted by weak PMI data
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.492, +2.35 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.485, +2.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.75, +2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.92 moving in a range of 32.95 – 32.99 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.80 – 33.10 today. The dollar made small gains but retreated from earlier highs as attention shifted to Fed speakers and flash PMI data. The euro struggled, briefly falling below the 1.1100 mark against the dollar due to a series of disappointing PMI reports from the eurozone. The Japanese yen strengthened slightly after fluctuating around the 144.00 level before pulling back, as traders awaited the reopening of Tokyo markets following the extended weekend and anticipated comments from BoJ Governor Ueda.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
