- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.64-33.68 this morning supportive level at 33.50 resistance level at 33.80
- SET Index: 1,428.0 (-0.22%), 10 Sep 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,495.5 (+0.4%), 10 Sep 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.557 (+0.00 bps), 10 Sep 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 3.65 (-5.0 bps), 10 Sep 2024
- U.S. small business sentiment dropped in August amid growing uncertainty
- UK pay growth cools, keeping BoE on track for another rate cut
- China’s strong exports are overshadowed by slowing imports
- The dollar was flat amid a lack of drivers
U.S. small business sentiment dropped in August amid growing uncertainty
In August, confidence among small U.S. businesses declined, undoing the increase seen in July due to rising uncertainties surrounding the November 5 presidential election and anticipated weak sales. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported on Tuesday that its Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.5 points to 91.2. This drop followed a peak in July, which had been the highest since February 2022. Additionally, the survey's Uncertainty Index rose by 2 points to 92, reaching its highest level since October 2020.
UK pay growth cools, keeping BoE on track for another rate cut
In the three months leading up to July, British wage growth slowed to its lowest level in over two years, while employment surged. This trend is expected to keep the Bank of England on course to lower interest rates again before the year ends. Average weekly earnings in Britain, excluding bonuses, increased by 5.1% compared to the same period last year, meeting expectations. This marked the lowest growth rate since the period ending in June 2022.
China’s strong exports are overshadowed by slowing imports
Growth in exports comes even after the U.S., Canada and the European Union imposed steep import tariffs on several major Chinese industries, especially the electric vehicle sector. Meanwhile, imports fell short of expectations due to weak domestic demand. This mixed trade performance underscores the difficulties Beijing faces as it seeks to boost overall economic growth without becoming overly dependent on exports, particularly given the tightening of consumer spending. Exports increased by 8.7% year-on-year, the highest growth since March 2023, surpassing the forecasted 6.5% and July's 7% increase. However, imports rose by only 0.5%, falling short of the anticipated 2% and down from the 7.2% growth in the previous month. The trade surplus grew to $91.02 billion in August, exceeding the expected $82.10 billion and improving from the $84.65 billion surplus in July.
The dollar was flat amid a lack of drivers
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.557, +0.00 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.555, +0.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.65, -5.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.85 moving in a range of 33.64 – 33.68 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.50 – 33.80 today. The dollar remained largely stable, with its index fluctuating within a narrow range due to a lack of significant economic data and growing focus on the upcoming US Presidential Debate and CPI report. The euro slightly weakened, with EUR/USD retreating from resistance around 1.1050, as traders awaited Thursday's ECB meeting without any notable catalysts. The Japanese yen saw some early safe-haven demand in response to initial risk-off sentiment in the US, and even as market sentiment improved, USD/JPY continued to decline below the 143.00 level.
Sources
: ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
