- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.28-35.32 this morning supportive level at 35.20 resistance level at 35.40
- SET Index: 1,313.1 (-0.73%), 2 Aug 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,346.6 (-1.86%), 2 Aug 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.559 (-1.97 bps), 2 Aug 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 3.80 (-19.0 bps), 2 Aug 2024
- Sluggish job growth drives unemployment to 4.3%
- Fed's Barkin describes the slowing job growth as 'reasonable' while resisting major rate cuts
- Japan's service sector activity rebounded in July
- South Korea's inflation rises in July following three months of decline
- Dollar hits four-month low as weak US jobs data boosts rate cut bets
Sluggish job growth drives unemployment to 4.3%
The July jobs report indicated a weakening labor market, making a September rate cut almost certain, though the extent is still debated. Additionally, the U.S. unemployment rate surged to nearly a three-year high due to a sharp slowdown in hiring, raising concerns about the labor market's health and potential recession risks. Job creation fell to 114,000 from 179,000, missing the anticipated 175,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that Hurricane Beryl did not significantly affect the July figures, and response rates were normal. The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 4.3% from 4.1%, which, according to the Sahm rule, historically signals a recession.
Fed's Barkin describes the slowing job growth as 'reasonable' while resisting major rate cuts
After the weak U.S. jobs report, Fed's Barkin told the NY Times that 114,000 jobs is still a "reasonable" figure despite the slowdown. He noted that Fed officials will assess August's job numbers before their next interest rate decision. Barkin added that significant rate cuts typically occur during rapid economic declines, and while 114,000 jobs isn't as strong as recent figures, it remains reasonable long-term.
Japan's service sector activity rebounded in July
In July, Japan's service sector saw growth again, driven by strong domestic demand, though businesses are still feeling the strain from sluggish international orders and ongoing cost pressures. The final au Jibun Bank Service purchasing managers' index (PMI) increased to 53.7 last month, up from 49.4 in June—the first contractionary figure in 21 months. Although the index moved back above the 50 mark that distinguishes growth from decline, it slightly decreased from the preliminary reading of 53.9.
South Korea's inflation rises in July following three months of decline
In July, South Korea's consumer inflation ticked up to 2.6% year-over-year, surpassing forecasts and ending a three-month decline. This increase, driven by supply-side pressures, was higher than the expected 2.5% and marked a rise from June's 2.4%. Monthly, the CPI rose 0.3%, reversing June’s 0.2% decline and exceeding the expected 0.25% increase. Petroleum products rose by 3.3%, and agricultural products, including a 6.3% jump in vegetable prices, increased by 0.9%. Core inflation remained steady at 2.2% for the third month.
Dollar hits four-month low as weak US jobs data boosts rate cut bets
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous
trading day was 2.559, -1.97 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A)
was 2.56, -2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was
3.80, -19.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.47 moving
in a range of 35.28 – 35.32 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.20
- 35.40 today. The Dollar Index was markedly weaker, with the flight-to-haven
trade ramping up after the US jobs report as Yen and Franc's strength sent the
index lower. The Euro was among the best performers against the Greenback, with
upside accumulating on the soft NFP report. The Japanese yen benefited the most
from the NFP report, as the flight to safety play persists. USD/JPY fell from
its session open of 149.30 to lows of 146.42.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing,
CEIC
