- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.50-34.58 this morning supportive level at 34.40 resistance level at 34.70
- SET Index: 1,303.0 (+1.02%), 16 Aug 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,554.3 (+0.20%), 16 Aug 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.554 (-0.39 bps), 16 Aug 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 3.89 (-3.0 bps), 16 Aug 2024
- US consumer sentiment rose in August, with steady inflation expectations
- Hurricane Beryl and oversupply impact U.S. single-family homebuilding
- Fed’s Goolsbee raises employment concerns
- Dollar gives up some gains as Jackson Hole approaches
US consumer sentiment rose in August, with steady inflation expectations
In August, U.S. consumer sentiment increased, influenced by political developments related to the White House race. The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for August stood at 67.8, up from July’s final reading of 66.4 and slightly above the forecast of 66.9. Inflation expectations for the next year remained steady at 2.9%, the same as in July, while the five-year inflation outlook held at 3.0% for the fifth consecutive month. For the U.S. presidential election, the survey noted that Democratic sentiment rose by 6% after President Biden withdrew and Vice President Harris became the nominee, marking the first increase since March.
Hurricane Beryl and oversupply impact U.S. single-family homebuilding
In July, U.S. single-family homebuilding hit a 16-month low, impacted by Hurricane Beryl and an oversupply of homes amid high mortgage rates and prices. This marked the fifth straight monthly decline, with starts falling 14.1% to an annual rate of 851,000 units, the lowest since March 2023. Year-over-year, single-family starts dropped 14.8%. Residential investment shrank in the second quarter after three quarters of growth. The South saw a 22.9% decrease in homebuilding, partly due to Hurricane Beryl, while the Northeast dropped 27.1%. The West experienced a slight 1.4% dip, but the Midwest saw a 16.8% increase.
Fed’s Goolsbee raises employment concerns
Fed's Goolsbee maintained his cautious stance, emphasizing that when the labor market begins to decline, it often deteriorates rapidly. He noted that some leading recession indicators are currently signaling trouble. He also cited rising small business defaults and unemployment as worrying signs and highlighted tight credit conditions. He warned that the full impact of past rate hikes might not yet be felt and suggested that easing restrictions could improve credit conditions. Despite these concerns, he acknowledged that GDP remains strong and that there are still areas of economic strength.
Dollar gives up some gains as Jackson Hole approaches
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.554, -0.39 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.545, -1.5 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.89, -3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.09 moving in a range of 34.50 – 34.58 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.40 - 34.70 today. The Dollar fell to end the week, reaching a low of 102.450 as it reversed some of the gains from Thursday’s data. The Euro regained the 1.10 level, peaking at 1.1021, but remains below the 1.1047 YTD high reached earlier. The Japanese yen recovered from Thursday’s sharp decline following US retail sales data. Although USD/JPY fell to 147.63, it did not approach Thursday’s low of 147.05. This week’s key events include the FOMC Minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics,
Investing, CEIC
