- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.07-35.175 this morning supportive level at 35.00 resistance level at 35.30
- SET Index: 1,292.7 (-0.39%), 14 Aug 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,455.2 (+0.38%), 14 Aug 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.571 (-1.59 bps), 14 Aug 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 3.83 (-2.0 bps), 14 Aug 2024
- U.S. inflation's smaller-than-expected July rise boosts chances for a September rate cut
- UK inflation rises less than expected, fueling rate cut speculation
- Japan's economy surged in Q2 due to a rise in consumption
- Dollar softens against euro as inflation data shows cooling
U.S. inflation's smaller-than-expected July rise boosts chances for a September rate cut
In July, U.S. consumer prices rose less than anticipated on a yearly basis, which increases the probability that the Federal Reserve will begin reducing interest rates at its upcoming September meeting. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) went up by 2.9% last month, a slight decrease from June's 3.0%. Economists had forecasted the rate would remain at June's level. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.2%, recovering from a 0.1% decline the previous month, aligning with expectations. Excluding more volatile categories like food and energy, the "core" CPI rose by 3.2% over the past year, below the anticipated 3.3%. Monthly core inflation saw a modest increase to 0.2%, up from 0.1% in June.
UK inflation rises less than expected, fueling rate cut speculation
British consumer price inflation rose for the first time this
year in July. However, the increase was smaller than anticipated, as prices for
services—monitored closely by the Bank of England—grew more slowly. The annual
inflation rate climbed to 2.2%, up from two months at the Bank's 2% target, but
slightly below the 2.3% median forecast. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food
and energy items, grew by 3.3% year-over-year in July, down from 3.5% in June
and below the expected 3.4%.
Japan's economy surged in Q2 due to a rise in consumption
In the second quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) grew 3.1% year-on-year,
surpassing the 2.1% expectation and recovering from a 2.3% contraction in the
first quarter. The previous quarter’s contraction was also revised to a smaller
decline of 1.8%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP increased by 0.8%,
exceeding the forecast of 0.6% and improving from a 0.5% contraction in the
prior quarter. This growth was driven by a 1% increase in private consumption,
well above the anticipated 0.5% and reversing a 0.6% decline in the March
quarter. The boost in consumption follows substantial wage hikes negotiated by
major Japanese labor unions, aligning with the Bank of Japan’s forecast that
increased private spending will support economic growth and provide more room
for interest rate hikes.
Dollar softens against euro as inflation data shows cooling
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.571, -1.59 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.53, -5.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.83, -2.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.96 moving in a range of 35.07 – 35.175 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.00 - 35.30 today. The Dollar experienced volatility following the US CPI data, which largely met expectations. Despite initial weakness, with the dollar index dropping to 102.26, losses were later erased as the session continued. The Euro outperformed its major counterparts on Wednesday, rising above 1.10 and reaching a session high of 1.1047, a level not seen since January. The Pound gained attention after UK CPI data came in cooler than anticipated, causing Cable to drop from 1.2860 to 1.2818. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen saw erratic movement, with USD/JPY fluctuating around the 147.00 mark.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics,
Investing, CEIC
