- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.755-36.76 this morning supportive level at 36.60 resistance level at 36.85
· SET Index: 1,319.1 (+0.18%), 25 June 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 5,469.3 (+0.39%), 25 June 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.68 (-0.54 bps), 25 June 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.23 (-2.00 bps), 25 June 2024
- US consumer confidence fell on weaker outlook for economy
- Canada inflation surprisingly increases in May, markets trim July rate cut bets
- Hawkish tone from Fed Bowman
- US dollar advances after hawkish Fed comment
US consumer confidence fell on
weaker outlook for economy
The Conference Board reported a decline in sentiment from 101.3 in May (revised
down) to 100.4 in June, slightly below the expected 100. The decrease reflects
reduced confidence in business conditions, job prospects, and incomes looking
ahead. Expectations for the next six months dropped by nearly 2 points to 73,
while current conditions showed a slight improvement from the revised May
figures. Consumer confidence has been restrained in recent years, influenced by
factors such as higher living costs, increased borrowing expenses, and more
recently, a weakening job market.
Canada inflation surprisingly
increases in May, markets trim July rate cut bets
Consumer prices in Canada unexpectedly increased in May, reversing a trend of
consistent cooling seen since the beginning of the year. This development has
caused markets to lower their expectations of a rate cut in July to below 50%.
Inflation rose to 2.9% annually in May, up from 2.7% the previous month. Key
measures of core inflation, closely monitored by the Bank of Canada (BoC), also
rose for the first time in five months. The unexpected acceleration in headline
inflation was driven by higher prices for services such as cellular services,
travel tours, rent, and air transportation. The BoC's preferred measures of
underlying inflation, CPI-median and CPI-trim, both increased unexpectedly.
CPI-median rose to 2.8% from 2.6% in April, while CPI-trim accelerated to 2.9%
from 2.8%. Economists had anticipated CPI-median to remain at 2.6% and CPI-trim
to be 2.8%.
Hawkish tone from Fed Bowman
Fed's Bowman indicated that she believes it is not yet appropriate to reduce
rates. She emphasized that the baseline expectation remains for inflation to
return to 2%, with the policy rate staying unchanged "for some time."
Bowman stated that once data indicates inflation sustainably reaching 2%, it
would eventually be suitable to gradually lower the policy rate. She also
expressed readiness to raise the target rate in future meetings if inflation
progress stalls or reverses. Additionally, Bowman noted that she does not
foresee any rate cuts in 2024 and has shifted the possibility of cuts to 2025.
Meanwhile, Fed's Cook characterized the current policy as "well
positioned" to address the economic outlook. She acknowledged that there
may come a time when reducing rates would be appropriate.
US dollar advances after hawkish
Fed comment
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day
was 2.68, -0.54 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.685,
+0.5 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.23, -2.00
bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.61 moving in a range
of 36.755 - 36.76 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.60-36.85
today. The dollar rose on Tuesday, bolstered by hawkish comments from Federal
Reserve officials, suggesting that the central bank will not be in a rush to
kickstart its rate-cutting cycle. The greenback firmed against the euro, yen,
Swiss franc, and commodity currencies, such as the Australian and New Zealand
dollars.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
