- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.86-36.91 this morning supportive level at 36.75 resistance level at 37.00
· SET Index: 1,349.8 (-0.95%), 29 May 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 5,267.0 (-0.74%), 29 May 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.82 (+3.47 bps), 29 May 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.61 (+7.00 bps), 29 May 2024
- US firms grow more pessimistic on economic outlook, Fed survey showed
- Germany’s CPI edged higher in May
- Oil steadies as traders look to OPEC+ meeting and US inventories
- Dollar up ahead of key inflation data
US firms grow more pessimistic on economic outlook, Fed survey showed The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) survey showed on Wednesday, as central bankers mull how long they will need to keep interest rates at current levels. The survey, released roughly every six weeks, comes as policymakers remain uncertain on when to start a rate-cutting cycle after holding interest rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.50% for the past 10 months. According to the survey, U.S. economic activity continued to expand from early April through mid-May but firms grew more downbeat about the future amid weakening consumer demand while inflation continued to increase at a modest pace. Waning consumer demand was an ongoing concern for many firms, and the continued conflict in the Middle East and further geopolitical tensions across the world were also cited as downside risks.
Germany’s CPI edged higher in May According to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) report, the provisional consumer price index (CPI) in Germany is expected to be 2.4%yoy in May 2024. Based on the results available so far, CPI expected to increase by 0.1% from the month earlier in April 2024. Energy prices in May 2024 were lower again than in the same month a year earlier despite the discontinuation of the brake on energy prices and the simultaneous introduction of a higher carbon price at the beginning of 2024, and the end of the temporary VAT reduction for gas and district heating in April 2024. The increase in food prices was also substantially lower again than the general rate of price increase. By contrast, the prices of services in May 2024 were up 3.9% compared with May 2023. The inflation rate excluding food and energy, often referred to as core inflation, is expected to be 3.0%yoy.
Oil steadies as traders look to OPEC+ meeting and US inventories Global benchmark Brent crude traded near $84 a barrel after falling 0.7% in the previous session, while West Texas Intermediate was close to $79. Oil was steady after falling on Wednesday as traders look to US stockpile data and an OPEC+ meeting on the weekend for more clarity on the outlook for supply and demand. Oil has risen this year on geopolitical conflicts and curbs by the OPEC+ and its allies. The group will likely consider factors including a drop in prices over the past month, a weaker demand outlook in China and healthy supplies from the Americas when it meets online on Sunday. It’s expected to prolong output cuts into the second half of 2024. Commodities followed bonds and stocks lower on Wednesday after a disappointing sale of US Treasuries. That offset nervousness due to another attack on a ship in the Red Sea and Israeli comments that it probably wouldn’t be able to defeat Hamas before the end of this year.
Dollar up ahead of key inflation data The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.82, +3.47 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.79, +3.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.61, +7.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.63 Moving in a range of 36.86-36.91 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.75-37.00 today. The dollar rose, boosted by higher U.S. bond yields ahead of key inflation data later in the week. The dollar reached as high as 157.715 yen on Wednesday, edging closer to levels that led to bouts of likely intervention from Tokyo at the end of April and early May. The Euro dropped to a near two-year low on the pound of 84.84 pence, driven by strong German regional inflation data, though that is unlikely to change expectations for a European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut next month.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
