- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.65-36.715 this morning supportive level at 36.50 resistance level at 36.80
· SET Index: 1,375.6 (+0.12%), 5 Apr 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 5,202.4 (-0.04%), 5 Apr 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.58 (+0.88 bps), 5 Apr 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.42 (+3.00 bps), 5 Apr 2024
- Strong US labor market underpins economy in first quarter
- Euro zone investor morale hits two-year high in April
- Japan's service-sector mood slumps, clouds BOJ rate hike path
- Dollar bulls to continue stampede as hawkish Fed speak to boost Treasury yields
Strong US labor market underpins economy in first quarter U.S. job growth blew past expectations in March and wages increased at a steady clip, suggesting the economy ended the first quarter on solid ground and potentially delaying anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday also showed the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% last month from 3.9% in February. The decline in the jobless rate reflected a sharp rebound in household employment, which more than absorbed the 469,000 people who joined the labor force. The unemployment rate has remained below 4% for 26 straight months, the longest such stretch since the late 1960s. The U.S. economy is outshining its global peers even though the Fed has raised rates by 525 basis points since March 2022 to dampen inflation. The labor market is benefiting from a rise in immigration over the past year.
Euro zone investor morale hits two-year high in April Investor morale in the euro zone improved for the sixth consecutive month in April to its highest level in more than two years, a survey showed, adding that even though Germany remained a drag it showed "economic signs of life". Sentix's index for the euro zone rose to -5.9 points in April from -10.5 in March, its highest level since February 2022, also beating a forecast of -8.5 in a Reuters poll of analysts. Sentix said that while expectation values for Germany had improved to their highest level since February 2022, Europe's biggest economy "remains the relative problem child of the major industrialized nations". For the euro zone, the expectations index rose to 5.0 points in April from -2.3 points in March, a seventh consecutive month of rises and the highest value since February 2022.
Japan's service-sector mood slumps, clouds BOJ rate hike path Japan's service-sector sentiment fell in March as rising living costs and bad weather weighed on consumption, a government survey showed, heightening uncertainty on how soon the central bank can raise interest rates again. Consumption has been a weak spot in Japan's fragile economic recovery as wages have yet to rise quickly enough to cushion the blow to households from rising inflation. A diffusion index measuring how taxi drivers, restaurants and other service-sector workers saw economic conditions fell to 49.8 in March, down 1.5 point from February. The diffusion index is the percentage of firms saying they saw economic conditions as good or improving, minus those saying conditions were bad or deteriorating.
Dollar bulls to continue stampede as hawkish Fed speak to boost Treasury yields The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.58, +0.88 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.565, +1.50 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.42, +3.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.77. Moving in a range of 36.65-36.715 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.50-36.80 today. The dollar will likely continue flexing its muscles against its rivals as the recent explosive jump in Treasury yields could keep going as Federal Reserve speakers are poised to reiterate the need for the Fed to remain cautious on cutting rates too early. If the pattern of last week continues, the Fed speakers slated for this week "will sound hawkish, as they try to put daylight between themselves and Jay Powell's 'dovish' tone from March 20," Macquarie said in a note, adding that there is room for the dollar to strengthen alongside the rise in US yields heading into the consumer inflation report. Fed speakers could point to the cost of an 'early cut,' Macquarie said, though may also point to the possibility that the Fed's estimates of the US's neutral rate may need to rise further.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
