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Daily Market Insight: 15 March 2024

15 มี.ค. 2567
  •  USDTHB: moving in the range 35.78-35.84 this morning supportive level at 35.65 resistance level at 35.95

·         SET Index: 1,394.9 (+0.75%), 14 Mar 2024

·         S&P 500 Index: 5,150.5 (-0.29%), 14 Mar 2024

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.51 (+1.93 bps), 14 Mar 2024

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 4.29 (+10.00 bps), 14 Mar 2024

 

  • US business inventories unchanged in January
  • China house prices fall at a faster pace in Feb
  • China central bank leaves key policy rate unchanged, as expected
  • Dollar gains ahead of PPI release; euro seeks ECB clues

 

US business inventories unchanged in January U.S. business inventories were unexpectedly unchanged in January as increases in stocks at retailers were offset by declines at manufacturers and wholesalers. The unchanged reading in business inventories reported by the Commerce Department's Census Bureau followed a 0.3% increase in December. Economists polled by Reuters had expected inventories, a key component of gross domestic product, to rise 0.2%. Inventories increased 0.4% year-on-year in January. Private inventory investment subtracted 0.3 percentage point from GDP growth last quarter after providing a large boost in the third quarter. The economy grew at a 3.2% annualized rate in the October-December quarter. Growth estimates for the first quarter are converging around a 2.0% pace.

 

China house prices fall at a faster pace in Feb Chinese house prices fell at a sharper pace in February than the prior month, official data showed on Friday, as the country’s property market remained under pressure from worsening sales and waning consumer confidence. Chinese house prices fell 1.4% year-on-year in February, about twice as much as the 0.7% drop seen in January. The reading came despite consistent efforts from Beijing to support the housing market, including lower lending rates and fewer restrictions on homebuyers. Prices fell about 0.36% month-on-month in February, with most cities in the country logging steady declines in prices from their 2021 peaks.

 

China central bank leaves key policy rate unchanged, as expected China's central bank left a key policy rate unchanged while withdrawing cash from a medium-term policy loan operation on Friday, as authorities continued to priorities currency stability amid uncertainty over the timing of expected Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The Fed's historic monetary tightening has bolstered the dollar and pressured the yuan over the past few years. Cutting rates before a move by the Fed or other major central banks would widen yield differentials, potentially putting more pressure on the local currency. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said it was keeping the rate on 387-billion-yuan ($53.80 billion) worth of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans to some financial institutions unchanged at 2.50% from the previous operation.

 

Dollar gains ahead of PPI release; euro seeks ECB clues The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.51, +1.93 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.50, +2.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.29, +10.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.68 Moving in a range of 35.78-35.84 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.65-35.95 today. The U.S. dollar edged higher in European trade, retaining recent strength ahead the release of more cues on U.S. interest rates in the form of producer inflation and retail sales data. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher at 102.490. The dollar received a boost earlier in the week after the release of a stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer price index print earlier this week, which ramped up bets that the Federal Reserve will take its time in reducing interest rates. The U.S. currency has slumped around 1.7% over the last month, hit hard  last week by dovish comments from Fed chief Jerome Powell, during his two-day testimony in front of Congress, which were seen by the markets as suggesting the U.S. central bank was preparing to start cutting interest rates in the summer. However, the index is still up around 1.5% this year as U.S. data has shown that the economy remains strong, and Tuesday’s CPI release suggested inflation remains a major sticking point.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC