- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.99-35.05 this morning supportive level at 34.85 resistance level at 35.15
· SET Index: 1,413.5 (-0.10%), 10 Jan 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 4,783.5 (+0.56%), 10 Jan 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.72 (-3.49 bps), 10 Jan 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.04 (+2.00 bps), 10 Jan 2024
- US trade deficit shrinks in November on falling imports
- Australia CPI inflation falls in Nov, but still above RBA target
- China's exports seen improving in December as global trade picks up
- Dollar trades in tight range ahead of key US inflation release
US trade deficit shrinks in November on falling imports The US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in November as imports of consumer goods fell to a one-year low amid slowing domestic demand, a trend that, if it persists in December, could result in trade having no impact on economic growth in the fourth quarter. The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also showed exports declined in November amid cooling demand overseas. Demand is slowing both in the United States and abroad following hefty interest rate increases by global central banks since 2022 to tackle rampant inflation. The Federal Reserve's rate hiking cycle has likely ended, with financial markets expecting the US central bank to start lowering borrowing costs as soon as March.
Australia CPI inflation falls in Nov, but still above RBA target Australian consumer inflation fell more than expected in November, helped chiefly by a decline in fuel costs as oil prices fell, although core inflation remained elevated and well above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s annual target. Consumer price index (CPI) inflation grew at an annualized 4.3% in November, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday. The reading was slightly below expectations of 4.4% and slowed from the 4.9% seen in October. A sustained drop in fuel costs was the biggest driver of the softer headline CPI reading, as concerns over oil demand and a supply glut battered global crude prices in late-2023. But housing and service cost inflation remained elevated, while electricity prices continued to trend higher despite government rebates.
China's exports seen improving in December as global trade picks up China's exports likely grew more quickly and for a second month in December, a Reuters poll showed, adding to signs global trade is starting to recover thanks to an upturn in the electronics industry and expectations of lower borrowing costs in 2024. Outbound shipments from the world's second-largest economy are expected to have risen 1.7% in December from a year earlier, after ending a six-month slump and growing 0.5% in November, according to the median forecast of 32 economists polled. Global trade slowed in 2023 as higher interest rates in the United States, Europe and other major consumer markets crimped demand. The United Nations warned trade in goods likely contracted by nearly $2 trillion or 8% last year. But improving Chinese, South Korean and German export data suggests conditions are slowly turning a corner.
Dollar trades in tight range ahead of key US inflation release The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.72, -3.49 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.74, -4.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.04, +2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.06 Moving in a range of 34.99-35.05 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.85-35.15 today. The US dollar edged lower, trading in a tight range with traders on edge before key US inflation data that could influence the future path of interest rates. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower at 102.147, after gaining 0.2%. The dollar has rebounded from December’s 2% fall as the traders have chosen the new year to reassess the likely speed and magnitude of the interest rate cuts most expect the Federal Reserve to deliver in 2024. The Fed's surprising dovish tilt in December has resulted in the market projecting around 150 basis points of cuts this year, but this is reliant on inflation continuing to retreat. This brings December US CPI release firmly into focus, as it is likely to drive market sentiment until the next Fed meeting at the end of this month.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
