- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.99-35.04 this morning supportive level at 34.90 resistance level at 35.20
· SET Index: 1,414.9 (-0.25%), 9 Jan 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 4,756.5 (-0.15%), 9 Jan 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.75 (-2.96 bps), 9 Jan 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.02 (+1.00 bps), 9 Jan 2024
- US small business sentiment up, but labor, inflation worries persist
- German industrial output drops unexpectedly in November
- Japan's Nov real wages down for 20th straight month
- Dollar gains before inflation data, bitcoin slips
US small business sentiment up, but labor, inflation worries persist US small business sentiment rose for the first time in five months in December but hiring costs and ongoing concerns around inflation continue to sour business owners' confidence. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) index rose to 91.9 in December from November’s 90.6. It was the first increase since July and matched that month's reading, but it held below its 50-year average of 98 for a 24th-straight month. Conditions have tracked the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive rate hike campaign since the 1980s, launched in 2022, during which small business owners have described tightened credit conditions. Inflation was the top problem for owners, and the share of owners reporting inflation as their main concern rose to a seasonally adjusted 23%.
German industrial output drops unexpectedly in November German industrial production unexpectedly fell in November, marking the sixth monthly decline in a row. Industrial production decreased in November by 0.7% compared to the previous month. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 0.2% rise. Industrial orders rose by only 0.3% month-on-month in November. The decline in output was broad-based. The production of capital goods decreased by 0.7% on the month, the production of intermediate goods fell by 0.5% and that of consumer goods by 0.1%. Outside manufacturing, there was a 3.9% increase in energy production, while production in construction dropped by 2.9% from the previous month. The Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing showed that German manufacturing activity continued to contract in December, pointing to a larger decline of 2% in the fourth quarter.
Japan's Nov real wages down for 20th straight month Japanese workers' real wages kept shrinking for a 20th month in November, raising fresh alarm for the sustainability of the country's economic recovery as firms enter the period of annual pay negotiation with labour unions. Japan's wage trend draws an unusual amount of attention from financial markets worldwide since the Bank of Japan regards pay and inflation outlooks as the most important data in considering the dismantling of its negative interest rate policy. Inflation-adjusted real wages, a key determinant of consumer purchasing power, fell 3.0% in November from a year earlier, faster than a 2.3% decrease in October, data from the labour ministry showed. The consumer inflation rate the government uses to calculate real wages, which includes fresh food prices but excludes owner's equivalent rent, decelerated to 3.3%, the lowest since July 2022, thanks to falling fuel costs and moderating food price hikes.
Dollar gains before inflation data, bitcoin slips The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.75, -2.96 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.775, -3.5 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.02, +1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.88 Moving in a range of 34.99-35.04 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.90-35.20 today. The dollar rose against the euro and yen as traders awaited inflation data on Thursday for clues on when the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin dipped but remained near its strongest level since April 2022 as anticipation mounted the Securities and Exchange Commission will imminently approve spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The dollar index had hit a five-month low in December when investors priced for the likelihood that the Fed will cut rates sooner rather than later as inflation eases closer to its 2% annual target and economic data shows signs of softness. It has recovered from some of that weakness this year, with the sell-off seen by some as overdone heading into year-end. But Fed expectations are likely to continue to drive dollar moves.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
