- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.58-34.715 this morning supportive level at 34.55 resistance level at 34.75
· SET Index: 1,408.8 (+0.27%), 25 Dec 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,754.6 (+0.17%), 22 Dec 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.74 (-0.16 bps), 25 Dec 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.90 (+1.00 bps), 22 Dec 2023
- Fed rate cuts firmly in view for 2024, even as rate-setters shift
- Japan corporate service inflation steady in November
- BOJ's Ueda signals chance of policy shift, progress on price goal
- Dollar struggles to gain footing in thin trade; yen steady
Fed rate cuts firmly in view for 2024, even as rate-setters shift The annual rotation on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest-rate-setting committee means its 2024 voting members lean slightly more hawkish than the outgoing group from 2023 – but that won’t budge the outlook for a pivot to interest-rate cuts next year. In fact, plenty of analysts make the opposite argument: if inflation continues to fall more quickly than expected, Fed policymakers will want to reduce rates even more than the three-quarters-of-a-percentage point implied in fresh projections published last week. Release of the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, only served to strengthen that view. Both headline and core measures cooled more than economists had anticipated, bringing the annualized rates over the past three and six months down to at or below the Fed's 2% target.
Japan corporate service inflation steady in November Japan's business-to-business service inflation was steady at 2.3% in November, data showed on Tuesday, suggesting companies were gradually passing on rising labour costs amid prospects for sustained wage gains. The data underscores the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) view that rising service prices will start to replace cost-push inflation as a key driver of price gains, and help achieve its 2% inflation target on a sustainable basis. The year-on-year rise in the services producer price index, which measures what companies charge each other for services, was unchanged from October and higher than a 2.0% gain in September, BOJ data showed.
BOJ's Ueda signals chance of policy shift, progress on price goal Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday the likelihood of achieving the central bank's inflation target was "gradually rising" and it would consider changing policy if prospects of sustainably achieving the 2% target increase "sufficiently". While companies are becoming more open to raising wages and prices, the key is whether wages will continue rising next year and lead to further increases in service prices, Ueda said. "If the virtuous cycle between wages and prices intensifies and the likelihood of achieving our price target in a sustainable and stable manner rises sufficiently, we will likely considering changing policy," Ueda said, offering the clearest sign to date of the chance of ending ultra-easy monetary policy. Ueda said the BOJ had not decided on a specific timing to change the loosest monetary stance of any major central bank, due to uncertainties over economic and market developments.
Dollar struggles to gain footing in thin trade; yen steady The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.74, -1.60 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.82, -8.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.90, +1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.60 Moving in a range of 34.58-34.715 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.55-34.75 today. The dollar was trying to find a floor on Tuesday in holiday-thinned trade, pressured by signs that inflation in the world's largest economy is cooling that will likely give the Federal Reserve room to ease interest rates next year. The yen meanwhile steadied near its recent five-month peak on the prospect that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could soon mark an end to its ultra-easy policy. For most of 2022 and 2023, the policy has kept the Japanese currency under pressure as other major central banks globally embarked on aggressive rate-hike cycles. Currency moves were largely muted in the day after Christmas, with markets in Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong still out for the Boxing Day public holiday.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
