- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.94-34.985 this morning supportive level at 34.80 resistance level at 35.10
· SET Index: 1,393.4 (+0.17%), 18 Dec 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,740.6 (+0.45%), 18 Dec 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.81 (+0.79 bps), 18 Dec 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.95 (+4.00 bps), 18 Dec 2023
- US corporate bond issuance seen increasing after yields slide
- German business sentiment falls in December
- BOJ keeps ultra-loose policy intact
- China's economic conditions to improve in 2024
- Dollar slips against euro as Fed rate-cut outlook weighs
US corporate bond issuance seen increasing after yields slide Some investors are predicting an increase in corporate bond issuance in the New Year, after bond yields slid last week, opening the door for companies to refinance existing debt or issue new debt at lower costs. Total US investment-grade corporate debt issuance in 2023 is expected to be similar to 2022's total of roughly $1.23 trillion, according to data from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) trade group, well below 2021 and 2020 totals of $1.47 trillion and $1.85 trillion, respectively. But investors and other market participants now see issuance picking up next year following expectations of a quicker pace of interest-rate easing after last week's Federal Reserve meeting. There are $770 billion in investment-grade bonds due in 2024, according to data by Morgan Stanley. The majority of corporate borrowers have been waiting for the Fed to cut rates before refinancing in the current high-rate environment.
German business sentiment falls in December German business morale unexpectedly worsened in December, the Ifo institute said on Monday after its latest survey also showed a decline in both expectations and current conditions. The Ifo institute said its business climate index stood at 86.4 versus the 87.8 forecasts by analysts in a Reuters poll, following a revised reading of 87.2 in November. The German government had to cut spending to plug a 17 billion euro ($18.32 billion) gap in its budget for 2024 after a constitutional court ruling on unused pandemic emergency funds blew a 60 billion euro ($65 billion) hole in its finances. The renewed decline in business sentiment in December echoes the message from the Composite PMI released last week, showing that Germany's economic downturn worsened this month, with both manufacturing and services activity contracting.
BOJ keeps ultra-loose policy intact The Bank of Japan maintained ultra-loose monetary settings on Tuesday in a widely expected move, underscoring policymakers' preference to await more clues on whether wages will rise enough to keep inflation durably around its 2% target. At the two-day meeting that ended on Tuesday, the BOJ maintained a 0.1% interest charged on financial institutions' excess reserves, and a 0% target for the 10-year government bond yield set under its yield curve control (YCC) policy. It also maintained the 1.0% upper bound for the 10-year yield.
Dollar slips against euro as Fed rate-cut outlook weighs The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.81, +0.79 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.82, -8.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.95, +4.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.96 Moving in a range of 34.94-34.985 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.80-35.10 today. The US dollar slipped against the euro on Monday, extending last week's fall, as the US currency remains under pressure from the Federal Reserve's signaling last week the possibility of interest rate cuts next year. The dollar was higher against the yen as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kicked off a two-day meeting that could be crucial in determining the timing of the end of the central bank’s ultra-loose stance on interest rates. Bets that the Fed will lower its benchmark overnight interest rate at its March meeting by a quarter of a percentage point soared last week after the US central bank left its policy rate unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range and officials forecast three-quarters of a percentage point in cuts next year. The Federal Reserve is not pre-committing to cutting interest rates soon and swiftly, and the jump in market expectations that it will do so is at odds with how the US central bank functions, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
