- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.83-34.96 this morning supportive level at 34.75 resistance level at 35.00
· SET Index: 1,378.9 (+1.53%), 14 Dec 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,719.6 (+0.26%), 14 Dec 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.78 (-7.03 bps), 14 Dec 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.92 (-12.00 bps), 14 Dec 2023
- US economy still resilient as retail sales beat expectations, layoffs stay low
- Japan's factory activity extends declines as pressures persist
- China's weak property sector, retail sales keep stimulus calls alive
- Dollar tumbles on dovish Fed, euro gains as ECB talks down rate cuts
US economy still resilient as retail sales beat expectations, layoffs stay low Retail sales increased 0.3% last month after falling 0.2% in October, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales edging down 0.1%. Retail sales are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation. Sales increased 4.1% year-on-year in November. Though the pace has slowed as households adjust to higher borrowing costs and prices, it remains sufficient to ward off a recession. Retailers have been offering hefty discounts heading into the holiday shopping season to attract customers, while lower gasoline prices also freed money for spending elsewhere. The rise in sales last month was almost across the board. Shopping is increasingly shifting to online, away from brick-and-mortar retailers, with online retail sales rebounding 1.0% after sliding 0.3% in October.
Japan's factory activity extends declines as pressures persist Japan's factory activity shrank for a seventh straight month in December while the service sector made modest gains, a business survey showed, as weak demand and price pressures capped growth. The au Jibun Bank flash Japan manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) shrank to 47.7 in December from 48.3 in November. It was the fastest deterioration in 10 months in the index, which has remained below the 50.0 threshold that separates contraction for seven straight months. "The overall performance of the private sector remained subdued," said Annabel Fiddes, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiled the survey. The survey showed a sharp decline in new work in the manufacturing sector, which led to a reduction in factory output.
China's weak property sector, retail sales keep stimulus calls alive China's property sector worsened in November as negative home buyer sentiment and indebted developers drove down sales and investment, while broader retail sector activity missed forecasts as recent stimulus struggled to revive demand. The world's second-largest economy has struggled to mount a strong post-COVID recovery as distress in the housing market, local government debt risks and weakening global demand slowed momentum. While the Asian giant grew faster-than-expected in the third quarter, domestic demand has remained tepid and manufacturers have had to discount prices to find buyers. A flurry of policy support measures have proven only modestly beneficial, raising pressure on authorities to roll out more stimulus as analysts say different parts of the economy are running at different speeds and long-standing issues persist.
Dollar tumbles on dovish Fed, euro gains as ECB talks down rate cuts The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.78, -7.03 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.82, -8.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.92, -12.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.13 Moving in a range of 34.83-34.96 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.75-35.00 today. The dollar fell to a two-week low against the euro and a more than four-month low against the Japanese yen in a broad based selloff on Thursday, after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday indicated that rate cuts are likely next year. The euro and pound, meanwhile, were supported by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England affirming the need to hold rates higher for longer. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that the tightening of monetary policy is likely over, with a discussion of cuts in borrowing costs coming "into view". The Fed's projections implied 75 basis points of cuts next year, from the current level. The euro gained 1.08% to $1.0991, the highest since Nov. 29. The ECB kept rates steady and pushed back against bets on imminent cuts to interest rates on Thursday by reaffirming that borrowing costs would remain at record highs despite lower inflation expectations.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
