- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.18-35.30 this morning supportive level at 35.15 resistance level at 35.35
· SET Index: 1,380.2 (-0.54%), 30 Nov 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,567.8 (+0.38%), 30 Nov 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.97 (+0.40 bps), 30 Nov 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.37 (+10.00 bps), 30 Nov 2023
- US consumer spending slows; labor market steadily easing
- Euro zone inflation tumble pits ECB against markets
- Chinese manufacturing activity unexpectedly rebounds in Nov- Caixin PMI
- US dollar gains but set for worst monthly loss in a year, euro falls
US consumer spending slows; labor market steadily easing Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased 0.2% last month after an unrevised 0.7% gain in September, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said. The increase was in line with economists' expectations. A 0.4% rise in outlays on services, including healthcare, housing and utilities as well as international travel, was partially offset by a 0.2% drop in spending on goods like new light trucks, gasoline and other energy products. The decline in light truck outlays was likely the result of shortages caused by the recently ended United Auto Workers strike. Inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was unchanged in October after rising 0.4% in September. In the 12 months through October, the PCE price index increased 3.0%. That was the smallest year-on-year gain since March 2021 and followed a 3.4% advance in September.
Euro zone inflation tumble pits ECB against markets Euro zone inflation tumbled more than expected for a third straight month in November, challenging the European Central Bank's narrative that price growth is stubborn and fueling bets on early spring rate cuts in defiance of the bank's explicit guidance. Inflation has dropped quickly towards the ECB's 2% target from levels above 10% just a year ago but policymakers have cautioned against excessive optimism. They warn that the "last mile" of disinflation could be more difficult and take twice as long as getting back under 3%. Hard data showing inflation falling much faster than expected appears to be challenging that outlook, however, even if a bounce back in the coming months is still likely as high energy prices get knocked out of year-earlier figures and some tax cuts are reversed.
Chinese manufacturing activity unexpectedly rebounds in Nov- Caixin PMI Chinese manufacturing activity unexpectedly rose back into expansion in November, as a mild increase in domestic demand helped offset a persistent decline in overseas orders. The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 50.7 in November, beating expectations for a reading of 49.3, and improving sharply from the 49.6 seen in the prior month. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, with the Caixin survey now coming back into growth after an unexpected contraction in October. The reading was in contrast to government PMI data released on Thursday, which showed a bigger-than-expected decline in manufacturing activity. But the Caixin survey differs from the government survey in its scope, wherein it focuses more on smaller, private enterprises, as opposed to the bigger, state-run enterprises covered by the official survey. Investors usually use both surveys to get a broader picture of the Chinese economy.
US dollar gains but set for worst monthly loss in a year, euro falls The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.97, +0.40 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.96, -1.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.37, +10.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.96 Moving in a range of 35.18-35.30 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.15-35.35 today. The dollar gained as investors took profits on bets the currency would weaken further and shrugged off data showing signs the U.S. economy is slowing. Thursday's economic data suggested that the Federal Reserve is likely done raising interest rates and may start easing by the middle of next year, typically a dollar-negative factor. Euro weakness after a soft euro zone inflation report also partly helped boost the greenback. The dollar index, which measures its value against six major currencies, rose 0.6% to 103.38 and was on track to post its best daily gain in more than a month. On a monthly basis, the dollar has posted a 3% loss, on pace for its worst monthly showing in a year.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
