- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.62-35.71 this morning supportive level at 35.50 resistance level at 35.75
· SET Index: 1,415.2 (+2.08%), 15 Nov 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,502.9 (+2.05%), 15 Nov 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.06 (-10.74 bps), 15 Nov 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.53 (+9.00 bps), 15 Nov 2023
- US economy cools as retail sales dip
- US producer prices unexpectedly fall in October
- Japan's export growth slows as China, global downturn risks loom
- Dollar gains on retail sales data, Fed rate cut date unclear
US economy cools as retail sales dip US retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in October as motor vehicle purchases and spending on hobbies dropped, pointing to slowing demand at the start of the fourth quarter that further strengthened expectations the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates. That was supported by other data showing the biggest decline in producer prices in three-and-a-half years in October on the back of cheaper gasoline. The reports followed on the heels of news on Tuesday that consumer prices were unchanged last month for the first time in more than a year. The data, combined with a cooling labor market, led economists to conclude that the US central bank's current rate hiking cycle was over. Still, there is no sign that the economy is sliding into recession. The drop in sales in October was less than expected and followed three straight months of hefty gains.
US producer prices unexpectedly fall in October US producer prices fell by the most in three-and-a-half years in October amid a sharp drop in the cost of gasoline, the latest indication of subsiding inflation pressures. The producer price index for final demand declined 0.5% last month, the largest decrease since April 2020. Data for September was revised lower to show the PPI increasing 0.4% instead of 0.5% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI edging up 0.1%. In the 12 months through October, the PPI increased 1.3% after rising 2.2% in September. The report followed data on Tuesday showing consumer prices unchanged in October. Cooling inflation together with slowing job and wage growth reinforced expectations that the US central bank's fastest monetary policy tightening campaign since the 1980s was over.
Japan's export growth slows as China, global downturn risks loom Japanese exports grew for a second straight month in October but at a sharply slower pace due to slumping China-bound shipments of chips and steel, as weakening external demand takes its toll on the trade-reliant economy. Exports rose 1.6% in October from a year earlier, Ministry of Finance data showed on Thursday, faster than a 1.2% increase expected by economists in a Reuters poll but slower than the 4.3% rise in September. Weak exports have complicated Japan's efforts to spur economic growth with sluggish domestic demand also weighing on the post-pandemic recovery. With the absence of growth drivers, some economists warn Japan could fall into a technical recession, defined as two straight quarters of contraction. Japan's economy weakened in July-September, snapping two straight quarters of expansion on soft consumption and exports.
Dollar gains on retail sales data, Fed rate cut date unclear The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.06, -10.74 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.13,-11.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.53, +9.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.50. Moving in a range of 35.62-35.71 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.50-35.75 today. The dollar gained after still strong US retail sales fell less than expected in October, a reminder for the market that a definitive date for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates is still unknown. The dollar bounced off its biggest drop in a year on Tuesday when the consumer price index (CPI) showed US inflation was cooling faster than expected, sealing market expectations that the Fed was done hiking interest rates. But at an annualized 3.2%, the pace of inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, leaving the question of when the Fed will cut rates unresolved. The dollar index, a measure of the US currency versus six others, rose 0.30%, off its two-month low of 103.98 on Tuesday. The euro was down 0.32% at $1.0844, after touching its highest since August the day before.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
