- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.97-36.00 this morning supportive level at 35.85 resistance level at 36.10
· SET Index: 1,380.0 (-0.14%), 1 Nov 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,237.9 (+1.69%), 1 Nov 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.29 (+4.19 bps), 1 Nov 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.77 (-11.00 bps), 1 Nov 2023
- Fed keeps rates unchanged, Powell hedges on possible end of tightening campaign
- US job openings stay elevated, layoffs at nine-month low
- US manufacturing sector slumps in October-ISM
- US dollar falls as markets believe Fed is done hiking rates
Fed keeps rates unchanged, Powell hedges on possible end of tightening campaign The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday as policymakers struggled to determine whether financial conditions may be tight enough already to control inflation, or whether an economy that continues to outperform expectations may need still more restraint. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the situation remained something of a riddle, with US central bank officials willing to raise rates again if progress on inflation stalls, wary that a rise in market-based interest rates may begin to weigh on the economy in a significant way, and trying not to disrupt, any more than necessary, an ongoing dynamic of steady job and wage growth. Powell said the better course of action for now, given the uncertainties, was to maintain the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range, and see how job and price data evolve between now and the next meeting.
US job openings stay elevated, layoffs at nine-month low US job openings increased in September, pointing to persistent labor market tightness that is supporting the economy and likely to see the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for a long time to cool demand. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report from the Labor Department on Wednesday also showed layoffs dropping to a nine-month low. There were 1.50 job openings for every unemployed person in September, slightly up from 1.49 in August and way above the pre-pandemic ratio of 1.2. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, were up 56,000 to 9.553 million on the last day of September. Data for August was revised lower to show 9.497 million job openings instead of the previously reported 9.610 million. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.250 million job openings in September.
US manufacturing sector slumps in October-ISM US manufacturing contracted sharply in October after showing signs of improvement in prior months as new orders and employment slumped, likely reflecting strikes by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union against Detroit's Big Three car makers. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Wednesday that its manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.7 last month from 49.0 in September, which was the highest reading since November 2022. It was the 12th consecutive month that the PMI remained below 50, which indicates contraction in manufacturing. That is the longest such stretch since the 2007-2009 Great Recession. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index unchanged at 49.0. The PMI was probably pulled down by the UAW strikes at assembly plants owned by Ford Motor, General Motors and Chrysler parent Stellantis across the country.
US dollar falls as markets believe Fed is done hiking rates The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.29, +4.19 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.22,+4.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.77, -11.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.25. Moving in a range of 35.97-36.00 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.85-36.10 today. The dollar index, which initially rose after the Fed statement, was last slightly down at 106.64. It has traded sideways since hitting an almost one-year high of 107.34 in early October on the back of a sharp rise US bond yields driven by strong economic growth. The Fed's latest statement noted that with job gains still "strong" and inflation still "elevated," the central bank continues to consider "the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time.“ That said, US rate futures have added to bets that the Fed is done raising its policy rate and will start cutting rates by June.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
