- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.855-35.93 this morning supportive level at 35.75 resistance level at 36.05
· SET Index: 1,395.9 (+0.55%), 30 Oct 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,166.8 (+0.71%), 30 Oct 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.25 (-5.76 bps), 30 Oct 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.88 (+4.00 bps), 30 Oct 2023
- U.S. new vehicle sales forecast to rise 4% despite October strikes
- German inflation eases in October to lowest level in two years
- China manufacturing PMI shrinks in Oct, services growth slows
- Japanese yen rises to two-week high vs dollar on talk of BOJ policy tweak
U.S. new vehicle sales forecast to rise 4% despite October strikes Despite factory closures due to strikes in October, analysts from Cox Automotive project a roughly 4% increase in U.S new vehicle sales compared to the same month last year. This estimate, however, remains below the pre-pandemic annual sales of over 17 million cars. In 2022, the number of cars sold fell to below 14 million. If current trends hold, around 15.8 million cars are expected to be sold this year. Analysts cautioned that high interest rates, concerns over a potential recession, and an ongoing United Auto Workers (UAW) strike could deter potential buyers. Despite these challenges, rising demand from individuals and businesses and growing inventory levels continue to fuel a recovery in sales.
German inflation eases in October to lowest level in two years Inflation in Germany eased noticeably in October, falling to its lowest level since August 2021, pointing to a substantial cooling in headline inflation in the euro zone. German inflation eased in October to 3.0%, the federal statistics office said. German consumer prices, harmonized to compare with other European Union countries, had risen by 4.3% year-on-year in September. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 4.3% in October from 4.6% in the previous month. While headline inflation is likely to ease further in the first few months of the coming year, the core inflation rate should stabilize around 3% by spring at the latest. Higher-than-forecast inflation is seen as one of the main risks by central bankers, as it could extend the tightening campaign of central banks, keeping interest rates higher for longer.
China manufacturing PMI shrinks in Oct, services growth slows Chinese manufacturing activity unexpectedly shrank in October, while non-manufacturing activity grew at a slower pace as domestic businesses faced continued pressure from worsening local and overseas demand. The manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) read 49.5 in October, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The reading was lower than expectations that growth would remain steady at the 50.2 seen last month. A reading below 50 indicates contraction, with the manufacturing PMI now slipping back into contraction after growing slightly in September. The sector has faced increased headwinds this year, particularly from slowing overseas demand as economic conditions in China’s biggest export markets worsen. China’s manufacturing PMI has now contracted for six of the 10 months so far in 2023.
Japanese yen rises to two-week high vs dollar on talk of BOJ policy tweak The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.25, -5.76 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.28,-6.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.88, +4.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.04. Moving in a range of 35.855-35.93 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.75-36.05 today. The Japanese yen climbed to a two-week peak against the dollar on Monday after a report said the Bank of Japan is considering tweaking its yield curve control policy to allow the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to rise above 1% when it concludes its meeting on Tuesday. The Nikkei report pushed the yen to 148.81 per dollar, its strongest level since Oct. 17. The greenback, which has been on the defensive all day, was last down 0.4% at 149.065 yen. Surging global rates have heightened pressure on the BOJ, which kicked off its two-day monetary policy meeting on Monday, to change its bond yield control policy, in which it maintains a -0.1% short-term interest rate target and a 0% cap on the 10-year bond yield.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
