- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.99-36.12 this morning supportive level at 35.90 resistance level at 36.20
· SET Index: 1,388.2 (+1.23%), 27 Oct 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,117.4 (-1.67%), 27 Oct 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.31 (+3.89 bps), 27 Oct 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.84 (-2.00 bps), 27 Oct 2023
- US consumer spending exits third quarter on strong note; monthly core inflation rises
- US Treasury seen boosting auction sizes as budget deficit worsens
- China's Sept industrial profits extend gains helped by policy support
- Dollar eases as month-end flows weigh; eyes on Fed and BOJ
US consumer spending exits third quarter on strong note; monthly core inflation rises Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, accelerated 0.7% last month after an unrevised 0.4% rise in August, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast spending gaining 0.5%. The increase in spending was spread across goods and services. Outlays on goods increased 0.7%, led by prescription medication, new light trucks, food and beverages as well as recreational goods and vehicles. Spending on services shot up 0.8%, boosted by international travel, housing and utilities, healthcare and airline transportation services. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index gained 0.4% after increasing by the same margin in August. Food prices climbed 0.3% and energy prices increased 1.7%. In the 12 months through September, the PCE price index advanced 3.4%, matching August's rise.
US Treasury seen boosting auction sizes as budget deficit worsens The US Treasury is likely to boost the size of auctions for bills, notes, and bonds in the fourth quarter when it announces its financing plans this week to fund a worsening budget deficit. Investors are playing close attention to this week's quarterly refunding announcement as a sharp jump in long-term Treasury yields has been partly attributed to concerns about the US fiscal deficit. Since the end of July, the 10-year yield has climbed more than 100 basis points. The budget deficit is increasing due to several factors, including higher federal government borrowing costs arising from the Federal Reserve's interest rate increases and quantitative tightening. Analysts expect the deficit to expand to $1.85 trillion in 2024 from $1.69 trillion this year and projects another $677 billion of bills that mature in a year or less coming to market and about $1.7 trillion in notes and bonds.
China's Sept industrial profits extend gains helped by policy support Profits at China's industrial firms extended gains for a second month in September, adding to signs of a stabilizing economy as the authorities launched a burst of supportive policy measures. The 11.9% year-on-year rise came on the back of a surprise 17.2% gain in August and follows stronger-than-expected industrial and consumption activity over September. For the first nine months, profits slid 9% from a year earlier, narrowing from a 11.7% decline in the first eight months, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. Industrial profits recovered quarter by quarter and swung to a 7.7% growth in the July-September period from declines over the previous two quarters.
Dollar eases as month-end flows weigh; eyes on Fed and BOJ The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.31, +3.89 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.31,-3.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.84, -2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.23. Moving in a range of 35.99-36.12 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.90-36.20 today. The dollar edged down against a basket of currencies, pulled down by portfolio rebalancing, but was on track to end the week higher as fresh data reinforced the view the US economy remains on a firm footing. US consumer spending increased more than expected in September, signaling a strong fourth quarter, while monthly inflation was elevated. The dollar index, which measures the currency's strength against a basket of six rivals, was 0.07% lower at 106.5, with analysts attributing some weakness to currency trading to rebalance portfolios. The index was up 0.4% for the week. Cooling inflation will likely keep the Fed on pause in coming months, traders bet on Friday, even as persistent underlying price pressures amid strong consumer spending kept some chance of a rate hike later this year in play.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
