- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.38-36.425 this morning supportive level at 36.30 resistance level at 36.50
· SET Index: 1,437.9 (+0.31%), 18 Oct 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,314.6 (-1.36%), 18 Oct 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.36 (+3.09 bps), 18 Oct 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.91 (+8.00 bps), 18 Oct 2023
- Foreign holdings of US Treasuries in August hit highest since December 2021
- Japan exports rise for the first time in three months
- China's Q3 GDP growth, Sept activity show economic recovery gaining traction
- Dollar gains as Fed, Middle East in focus
Foreign holdings of US Treasuries in August hit highest since December 2021 Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries in August rose to their largest level since December 2021, data from the Treasury Department showed, rising for a third straight month. Total holdings of U.S. Treasuries climbed to $7.707 trillion in August from $7.655 trillion the previous month. Compared with a year earlier, overseas holdings were up roughly 2.8%. Japanese investors raised their stash of Treasuries to $1.116 trillion from $1.112 trillion in July. Their August holdings were the largest since April, rising for a third straight month. Japan remains the largest non-U.S. holder of U.S. government debt. China's holdings of Treasuries fell further to $805.4 billion in August, the lowest since May 2009, when it had $776.4 billion, data showed.
Japan exports rise for the first time in three months Japan's exports grew for the first time in three months in September, amid signs of resilience in overseas markets, but a worsening conflict in the Middle East and slowdown in China cloud the outlook for the world's third-largest economy. Exports grew 4.3% in September from a year earlier, Ministry of Finance (MOF) data showed on Thursday, bigger than a 3.1% increase expected by economists in a Reuters poll and a 0.8% fall in August. Exports were driven by car shipments, which account for 18% of overall exports, offsetting declines in exports of chip-related products. China-bound food exports, including fishery produce, tumbled 58% year-on-year in September due to its ban on Japanese food imports on worries about water released from the Fukushima nuclear power plant.
China's Q3 GDP growth, Sept activity show economic recovery gaining traction China's economy grew at a faster-than-expected clip in the third quarter, while consumption and industrial activity in September also surprised on the upside, suggesting the recent flurry of policy measures is helping to bolster a tentative recovery. Rapidly weakening growth in the world's second-biggest economy since the second quarter prompted authorities to step up their support steps, with batch of data indicating the stimulus is starting to gain traction although a property crisis and other headwinds continue to pose risks to the outlook. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4.9% in July-September from the year earlier, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed, versus analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 4.4% increase but slower than the 6.3% expansion in the second quarter.
Dollar gains as Fed, Middle East in focus The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.36, +3.09 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.32,+2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.91, +8.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.33. Moving in a range of 36.38-36.425 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.30-36.50 today. The dollar rose against the euro and yen as benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit 16-year highs and as investors watched the war between Hamas and Israel for signs of escalation. Since mid-July, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has climbed about 120 basis points and the dollar index has risen around 7%. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 39% chance that the Fed could hike rates again by year-end, but only 6% odds of an increase next month, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. In a strong signal that the Fed will not raise interest rates at its next meeting but could easily do so later, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he wants to "wait, watch and see" if the U.S. economy continues its run of strength or weakens in the face of the Fed's rate hikes to date. The currency has benefited from expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold rates higher for longer as it battles to bring inflation closer to its 2% annual target.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
