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Daily Market Insight: 9 October 2023

9 ต.ค. 2566
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 36.94-37.07 this morning supportive level at 36.90 resistance level at 37.20

·         SET Index: 1,438.5 (-0.98%), 6 Oct 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,308.5 (+1.04%), 6 Oct 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.37 (+0.95 bps), 6 Oct 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 4.78 (+6.00 bps), 6 Oct 2023

 

  • US job growth sizzles in September; wage inflation cooling
  • German industrial orders rebound in August but outlook uncertain
  • China's Golden Week holiday spending per capita surpasses 2019 levels
  • Dollar, yen gain on flight to safety as Hamas attack rattles nerves

 

US job growth sizzles in September; wage inflation cooling Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 jobs last month, the largest rise since January. The economy created 119,000 more jobs than previously reported in July and August. Payroll gains were almost double the 170,000 forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. The economy needs to create roughly 100,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population. Policymakers, eager to see labor market conditions easing, could draw some comfort from slowing wage growth. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% after a similar gain in August. That lowered the annual increase in wages to 4.2%, the smallest gain since June 2021, from 4.3% in August. The moderation in wages was likely because most of the jobs added last month were in lower-paying industries. Nevertheless, wages are still rising faster than the 3.5% pace that economists say is consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target.

 

German industrial orders rebound in August but outlook uncertain German industrial orders rose more than expected in August due to a strong increase in computing, electronic and optical products, but the outlook for the sector remains challenging. Orders rose by 3.9% on the previous month on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, the federal statistics office said on Friday. A Reuters poll of analysts had pointed to a rise of 1.8%. The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders were 4.9% higher in the period from June to August than in the previous three months. The increase in August follows a sharp decline the previous month. The statistics office revised July's drop to 11.3% compared with June, from a provisional decline of 11.7%. In August, an increase of 37.9% on the month in the manufacturing of computer, electronic and optical products drove the expansion in industrial orders. The manufacturing of electronic components was largely responsible for the increase.

 

China's Golden Week holiday spending per capita surpasses 2019 levels

Chinese holidaymakers' spending surged during this year's eight-day Golden Week holiday, beating pre-pandemic levels and potentially boosting confidence in the country's economic recovery. In China, the Mid-Autumn festival is an important festival for family gatherings and this year it coincided with the National Day holiday, resulting in a longer-than-normal break. Average spending per trip during the Golden Week holiday this year reached 911.6 yuan ($124.86), according to Reuters calculations based on government data published on Friday. This compared to 830.8 yuan per trip in 2019 when the holiday was seven days long, and 680.6 yuan last year. Travelers made 826 million trips within mainland China, up 71.3% from a year ago and 4.1% higher than in 2019

 

Dollar, yen gain on flight to safety as Hamas attack rattles nerves The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.37, +0.95 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.34, -1.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.78, +6.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.97. Moving in a range of 36.94-37.07 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.90-37.20 today. The safe-haven dollar and Japanese yen edged higher on Monday as violence in the Middle East spooked markets, while a blowout U.S. jobs report gave the greenback a further leg up. The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars meanwhile fell in thinned Asian trade, with Japan closed for a holiday. Against the euro, the yen rose more than 0.3% to 157.55, while the Aussie fell roughly 0.7% at one point to hit a session-low of 94.84 yen. The Japanese currency last bought 149.19 per dollar. Risk sentiment was fragile after Israeli forces clashed with gunmen from the Palestinian group Hamas over the weekend, hours after the militants launched a surprise attack on Israel in the deadliest day of violence in the country for 50 years.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC