- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.52-35.57 this morning supportive level at 35.45 resistance level at 35.65
· SET Index: 1,50.9 (-0.40%), 11 Sep 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,487.5 (+0.81%), 11 Sep 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.94 (+5.37 bps), 11 Sep 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.29 (+3.00 bps), 11 Sep 2023
- EU Commission cuts euro zone growth forecast as Germany in recession
- BOJ's hawkish tilt suggests end to super-easy policy approaching
- Australia consumer sentiment worsens in September
- Dollar retreats ahead of inflation data; Yen soars on Ueda's comments
EU Commission cuts euro zone growth forecast as Germany in recession The euro zone economy will grow slower than previously expected this year and next, the European Commission forecast as consumer demand suffers from high inflation and the biggest economy, Germany, slips into recession this year. In its interim forecasts for gross domestic product and inflation of the euro zone's five biggest economies, the Commission said the single currency area's GDP (gross domestic product) would expand 0.8% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024, against forecasts of 1.1% and 1.6% respectively made in May. The Commission forecast euro zone consumer inflation of 5.6% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, both well above the European Central Bank's target of 2.0%. Inflation this year is to be lower than the 5.8% forecast in May, but higher than previously forecast in 2024, as the May forecast was for 2.8%.
BOJ's hawkish tilt suggests end to super-easy policy approaching Bank of Japan policymakers are increasingly talking up the need to shift away from the massive monetary stimulus of the past decade, even as growing global risks heighten concerns about a fragile economic recovery. A series of hawkish comments by BOJ speakers in recent weeks suggest the bank is preparing markets for an eventual policy change amid growing price pressures in deflation-prone Japan. Even dovish members of the BOJ board have expressed an openness to talk about a long-awaited exit from the extremely accommodative policy of former governor Haruhiko Kuroda, acknowledging changes in conditions may warrant a tweak in monetary settings. Governor Kazuo Ueda told a newspaper interview on Saturday the BOJ could get enough data by year-end to judge whether conditions are in place to raise short-term interest rates.
Australia consumer sentiment worsens in September Australian consumer sentiment deteriorated further in early-September, a private survey showed on Tuesday, as dwindling household savings, sticky inflation, and high interest rates largely outweighed a less hawkish outlook for the RBA. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped 1.5% to 79.7 in September, remaining close to its worst level since the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. The reading was driven by persistent pessimism among consumers, especially over rising rents and a renewed surge in fuel prices. While consumers saw a lower chance of more interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, especially after inflation eased substantially this year, they also saw few chances of an interest rate cut over the next year.
Dollar retreats ahead of inflation data; Yen soars on Ueda's comments The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.94, +5.37 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.88, +6.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.29, +3.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.50. Moving in a range of 35.52-35.57 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.45-35.65 today. The U.S. dollar fell in early European trade Monday, retreating from a six-month high, while the Japanese yen surged as comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a potential change in monetary policy. The Dollar Index traded 0.5% lower to 104.212, falling from last week's six-month high of 105.15. Dragging the dollar index lower Monday has been sharp gains in the yen, with USD/JPY 1.2% lower at 146.06, as BOJ head Kazuo Ueda flagged a potential pivot away from negative interest rates. This extremely easy monetary policy has contributed significantly to the yen falling to 10-month lows against the dollar given the growing interest rate differentials.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
