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Daily Market Insight: 8 September 2023

8 ก.ย. 2566
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 35.545-35.64 this morning supportive level at 35.45 resistance level at 35.70

·         SET Index: 1,550.4 (+0.10%), 7 Sep 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,451.1 (-1.02%), 7 Sep 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.91 (+2.95 bps), 7 Sep 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 4.27 (-3.00 bps), 7 Sep 2023

 

  • Initial jobless claims unexpectedly decline to 216,000
  • Euro zone retail sales dip as auto fuel purchases fall in July
  • Japan real wages fall for 16th straight month in July
  • Dollar steadies near six-month highs; U.S. economy shows resilience

 

Initial jobless claims unexpectedly decline to 216,000 The number of Americans filing for new unemployment insurance unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting a lingering tightness in the U.S. labor market that may impact the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decisions. Initial jobless claims, widely seen as a proxy for lay-offs, decreased to 216,000 in the week ended on September 2, down from a marginally upwardly revised reading of 229,000 in the prior week. Economists had projected that the figure would climb to 234,000. The four-week moving average, which aims to account for volatility in the weekly data, also inched lower to 229,250. Meanwhile, the amount of people receiving benefits after a first week of aid dipped by 40,000 to 1.679 million.

 

Euro zone retail sales dip as auto fuel purchases fall in July Retail sales in the euro zone declined in July, though only due to reduced automotive fuel purchases, while June registered an increase rather than the decline reported last month. Retail sales volumes in the 20 nations sharing the euro currency fell by 0.2% in July from June and were 1.0% lower year-on-year. That compared with average forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists of a 0.1% monthly decline and a 1.2% drop from a year earlier. At the same time, June figures were revised up to a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a 1.0% year-on-year decline, compared with negatives of respectively 0.3% and 1.4% reported last month.

 

Japan real wages fall for 16th straight month in July Japanese real wages extended their fall to a 16th consecutive month in July, government data showed on Friday, as salaries failed to keep up with rising prices. Global financial markets closely follow wage trends in the world's third largest economy as the Bank of Japan emphasizes sustainable wage rises as a prerequisite for deciding whether and how to pull the plug on its ultra-loose monetary stimulus. Inflation-adjusted real wages, a barometer of consumers' purchasing power, slid 2.5% in July from a year earlier following a 1.6% slump in the month before. The consumer price index officials use to calculate real wages, which includes fresh food prices but excludes owners' equivalent rent, remained flat at 3.9%.

 

Dollar steadies near six-month highs; U.S. economy shows resilience The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.91, +2.95 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.89, +0.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.27, -3.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.58. Moving in a range of 35.545-35.64 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.45-35.70 today. The U.S. dollar steadied near a six-month peak in early European trade Thursday, boosted by signs of a resilient U.S. economy even as the global outlook weakened. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher to 104.897, having earlier reached just short of 105, its highest level since mid-March. Data showed that U.S. service sector activity grew more than expected in August, with a gauge of prices in the sector also rising further. The readings fueled concerns that inflation will remain sticky in the near-term, eliciting a continued hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve. Unemployment data later in the session is expected to show that the U.S. labor market remains healthy, with initial jobless claims expected to rise slightly to 235,000 from 228,000 the prior week. Also of interest Thursday will be the plethora of Fed officials due to speak later at a fintech conference hosted by the Philly Fed, before they enter the blackout period ahead of their meeting later this month.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC