- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.36-35.41 this morning supportive level at 35.20 resistance level at 35.50
· SET Index: 1,519.1 (-0.64%), 18 Aug 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,369.7 (-0.01%), 18 Aug 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.74 (+2.50 bps), 18 Aug 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.26 (-4.00 bps), 18 Aug 2023
- Euro zone inflation fall confirmed, easing pressure on ECB to hike
- Malaysia posts weakest GDP growth in nearly 2 years as exports slump
- Thai economy likely grew 3.1% in Q2 on higher tourist arrivals
- Dollar gains intact as traders eye Jackson Hole
Euro zone inflation fall confirmed, easing pressure on ECB to hike Euro zone inflation slower further and even underlying price pressures appear to have peaked, Eurostat data showed on Friday, easing pressure on the European Central Bank to keep raising rates after its fastest rate-hike cycle on record. The ECB has lifted rates from deep in negative territory to two-decade-highs in just a year to combat a historic surge in inflation and policymakers are now contemplating whether they have done enough to put price growth back on a path to 2%. Consumer prices increased by 5.3% in July versus 5.5% in June, extending a downtrend that started last autumn. Meanwhile price growth excluding food and energy, the underlying measure closely watched by the ECB, was flat at 5.5%, Eurostat said, confirming preliminary figures.
Malaysia posts weakest GDP growth in nearly 2 years as exports slump Malaysia's economic growth hit the lowest in nearly two years in the second quarter due to sliding exports and a global slowdown, prompting the central bank on Friday to warn that full-year growth will come in at the lower end of its previous forecast. The weaker outlook does not change most economists' expectations for the central bank to keep policy rates on hold this year as the Southeast Asian economy confronts weakening global demand and a slowdown in main trading partner China. Second-quarter annual growth came in at 2.9%, central bank data showed. The expansion was the slowest pace since the third quarter of 2021 when the economy contracted by 4.2%, and was lower than the 5.6% growth in the first quarter of the year.
Thai economy likely grew 3.1% in Q2 on higher tourist arrivals Thailand's economy likely grew 3.1% in the April-June quarter from a year ago, up from 2.7% in the previous quarter, driven by increased foreign tourist arrivals, according to the median forecast of 21 economists polled by Reuters. On a quarterly basis, gross domestic product (GDP) was forecast to have grown by a seasonally-adjusted 1.2%, a slowdown from the 1.9% growth in the preceding quarter, according to a smaller sample of forecasts in the Aug. 14-17 poll. While the country's tourism-driven economy is expected to improve gradually, visitor numbers are still well below pre-pandemic levels. Thailand is predicted to receive 29 million tourists this year, down from 40 million visitors in 2019, the last full year before the COVID pandemic. Exports, a key driver of growth, have contracted since October 2022, indicating weak global demand, especially from China, Thailand's biggest trading partner.
Dollar gains intact as traders eye Jackson Hole The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.74, +2.50 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.71, +2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.26,-4.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.40. Moving in a range of 35.36-35.41 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.20-35.50 today. The dollar began on a firm footing on Monday, following five straight weeks of gains, as investors looked ahead to Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium for a guide on where rates might settle when the dust of this hiking cycle clears. The dollar made a gain of 0.7% on the euro last week, inched ahead on the yen and surged by more than 1% on the Antipodean currencies as U.S. Treasury yields leapt in anticipation of interest rates staying higher for longer. In early trade, the Australian dollar was just above last week's nine-month low of $0.6365, and the New Zealand dollar was pinned at $0.5923. They have suffered a double blow lately as in both countries central banks have indicated they are on hold, and both are exposed, via exports, to China where market fears about the slowing economy have swelled as property problems deepened.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
